Commentary
Communist China always telegraphs its punches—even if you don’t quite know when they’re coming.
The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) Joint Sword-2024A exercises in May were meant to “punish” Taiwan for choosing their own destiny, and more exercises are reportedly planned.
China’s defense minister was firm at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue regarding Taiwan and other matters, showing careful preparation.
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Commentators present various scenarios for potential actions, such as a blockade, blustering, squeezing, or an all-out assault on Taiwan. Preparation for the worst is wise.
What Did the PLA Demonstrate in Recent Drills?
The PLA is engaging in comprehensive exercises, with further planned phases. They are enhancing joint/combined operations and practicing various capabilities to exert pressure on Taiwan and assess reactions from Taipei and Washington.
The PLA could swiftly transition from exercises to actual conflict if a political decision is made.
While some were surprised by the recent exercises, it’s crucial to be prepared for potential sudden actions without extensive warning.
Assessing PLA capabilities is challenging due to limited information and lack of independent coverage. The PLA’s lack of recent real combat experience adds uncertainty to potential military actions.
Starting a war over Taiwan would be a risky move for the Chinese regime, as the outcome of wars is unpredictable.
Notably, experts incorrectly predicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the unpredictability of conflict.
Taiwan’s Defenses Stretched
Taiwan’s military faces increased challenges from China, straining its capabilities. The CCP’s long-term efforts to influence Taiwan, including potential collaboration with the opposition KMT, create internal unrest that distracts from defense priorities.
Political turmoil in Taiwan could provide a pretext for CCP intervention to “restore order,” similar to past conflicts in other regions.
Xi may view the current political climate in the U.S. favorably for potential actions against Taiwan, given domestic divisions and uncertainties.
Increased U.S. military cooperation with Taiwan has had some impact, but rebuilding defense capabilities takes time and overcoming decades of military isolation.
Could the US Military Intervene?
American intervention in a conflict with China would be challenging and could lead to significant U.S. involvement. While allies like Japan and the Philippines may play limited roles, the burden would likely fall on U.S. forces.
President Biden’s willingness to act in a potential conflict is uncertain, despite previous statements indicating support for Taiwan’s defense.
Recent Chinese aggression has not been met with substantial U.S. response, raising doubts about future actions in the event of a conflict.
Despite all efforts by the United States—such as implementing limited sanctions, threatening further sanctions, engagement, talks, and deploying aircraft carriers to the region—the Chinese regime continues to operate without hindrance.
It appears that Beijing has given Kim Jong Un free rein. Furthermore, China openly supports Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, showing no concern for public opinion. Additionally, it endorses and encourages its proxies, including Hamas, Iran, and Venezuela.
Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
