New Analysis
NEW DELHI—Following his re-election as India’s Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, Narendra Modi received congratulations from various world leaders. However, one message that stood out was from Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te. In response, Modi not only thanked President Lai but also emphasized the strengthening ties between India and Taiwan, much to Beijing’s dismay.
Geopolitical analysts believe this exchange signifies the evolution of India’s Act East policy, which now includes Taiwan. The cordial interaction reflects strategic concerns shared by the two nations and their mutual economic interdependence.
While India has not officially recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation, their diplomatic relations have been growing, especially after the 2020 Galwan conflict strained Indo-China relations. Taiwan’s exports to India have increased, and Taiwanese businesses are increasingly investing in India.
Ming-Shih Shen, a national security expert, mentioned that the interaction between President Lai and Modi is driven by their shared geopolitical interests and the need to counter China’s influence.
Following the exchange between Modi and Lai, China expressed strong opposition, emphasizing its one-China policy and denying the legitimacy of Taiwan’s president. China protested to India about Modi’s response to President Lai, highlighting the sensitivity of the issue.
Experts suggest that the shared threat from China has brought Taiwan and India closer together. Modi’s response to President Lai indicates India’s desire to play a larger role in global affairs and signifies the deepening relationship between the two countries.
India has been a regional player dealing with challenges posed by China. However, it now aims to expand its global footprint by stretching itself to Taiwan in the East and East Africa in the West, as well as the more recent IMEC [India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor], according to Mr. Ramesh.
By expanding its global footprint, India is seeking global leadership and power through increased trade and commercial activity, he added.
Mr. Shen mentioned that India doesn’t necessarily need Taiwan to compete with China. However, Taiwan’s chip and semiconductor technology have become a new cooperation sector between the two countries, aiding India in promoting its high tech and enhancing its economy.
During his second tenure, Mr. Modi’s government launched the country’s ambitious semiconductor mission with an outlay of $10 billion in 2021. This mission has progressed with the approval of three new plants by the Indian cabinet earlier this year, expected to generate advanced technology jobs.
Mr. Shen predicted that Taiwan-India relations will continue to deepen in the future, potentially expanding into security and defense industry cooperation as the relationship matures. He emphasized the need for India to strengthen its defense and aviation industry capabilities, with Taiwan providing a market for defense industry cooperation.
The Taiwanese analyst believes that India will not establish formal relations with Taiwan to avoid conflict with China. However, to strengthen its economy and develop a better understanding of China’s military intelligence, India must look to Taiwan.
Mr. Shen highlighted that China’s apprehension about the interaction between Mr. Modi and President Lai stems from fear. China is concerned that deeper Taiwan-India relations may merge the Sino-Indian border sovereignty issue with the Taiwan Strait conflict, potentially leading to alliances against China, which would be a nightmare for Xi Jinping, the leader of the communist party.
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