President Biden’s path to victory heavily relies on strong support from women, but his current standing among women is at its weakest since 2004. This is a significant factor contributing to the tight race.
Recent polls indicate that Mr. Biden’s lead among women has decreased to about eight percentage points compared to the 2020 election, down from a 13-point lead four years ago. Conversely, former President Donald J. Trump’s support among men has rebounded to the double-digit lead he had in 2016.
While Republicans have historically held leads among men in presidential elections, Democrats have typically led among women by a larger margin in successful campaigns.
Mr. Biden’s decline in support is particularly noticeable among Black and Hispanic women, as indicated by a new series of polls conducted by KFF. These polls focus on women nationwide, as well as in Arizona and Michigan.
While abortion and democracy remain important issues for some women, concerns about inflation are playing a more central role in the election and benefiting Mr. Trump.
The KFF polls suggest that in states where abortion rights are at risk, Democratic women are more motivated to vote. However, in states where abortion access is secure, there is no difference in motivation among Republican women.
Despite challenges, Mr. Biden’s support among women remains stronger than his support among men, especially among young men and those without a college degree. Democratic strategists believe that key constituencies like women and Black voters will realign with Mr. Biden as the campaign progresses.
However, Mr. Biden’s struggles with Black and Hispanic women are significant. His lead among Black women has decreased from 86 points to 58 points since the 2020 election, and his lead among Hispanic women has also shrunk considerably. The KFF survey shows Mr. Biden holding a four-point lead among women overall.
The KFF polls also reveal that abortion-focused voters, who tend to be younger and whiter, support Mr. Biden on this issue and want to see him re-elected. However, a larger group of women who prioritize inflation may sway the election outcome.
Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, emphasizes that women are not single-issue voters and that inflation is a key concern for many female voters.
Inflation-focused voters, who are more likely to be Black or Hispanic, as well as middle-aged, prioritize economic stability. The KFF surveys indicate that twice as many women felt financially better off under Mr. Trump, particularly young women.
The trend of Democratic success with women in recent years contrasts with the 1980s when Republican candidates secured majorities among both men and women. Nevertheless, it has been uncommon for a Democrat to have less than a double-digit lead with women in the past two decades.
