Underestimating China’s Airpower Threat Again

Commentary

Americans are united in their desire to deter war. As the United States Air Force (USAF) makes crucial decisions regarding its sixth-generation air superiority combat aircraft, it is essential not to repeat past mistakes that could lock the United States into inferiority, increasing the chances of war.

In 2009, the Obama administration underestimated China’s air power potential in order to justify terminating production of the world’s best heavy air superiority fighter—the Lockheed Martin F-22A Raptor twin-turbofan fifth-generation fighter—at 187 aircraft.

Such a fighter is defined by its ability to supercruise or fly supersonically without afterburners, achieve supermaneuvrability with thrust vectored engines, perform sensor fusion to speed pilot decisions, and have advanced stealth to reduce radar detection.

In July 2009, the Obama administration projected for the mid-2020s: “The U.S. will have approximately 1,700 of the most advanced fifth-generation fighters versus a handful of comparable aircraft for the Chinese.”

That mistake is now undermining deterrence in Asia. According to a June 13 article in Jane’s Defence Weekly, China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) may have up to 195 of its Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) J-20 twin-turbofan, supercruising, supermaneuverable, stealthy, and long-range fifth-generation heavy air superiority fighter.

Other observers estimate the PLAAF may have closer to 300 J-20s, producing up to 100 a year.

Jane’s counts about 12 J-20 units, with about six near Taiwan that could eventually deploy about 144 J-20s for immediate operations over the democratic island.

Now, in 2024, the United States has to achieve air superiority to deter a wider Russian war in Europe, an Iranian-funded war against Israel, and the Chinese regime’s aggression against U.S. allies in Asia, with only about 130 deployable F-22As and 630 (out of an eventual 2,400) smaller, shorter-range Lockheed Martin F-35 fifth-generation fighters with the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.

With the PLAAF’s 120- to 190-mile-range PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles (AAM) that may out-range most U.S. AIM-120 AAMs in service, the J-20 has the range and reach to threaten USAF combat aircraft, electronic support, and tanker support aircraft crucial to U.S. combat success.

An American inability to achieve air superiority only increases temptations for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to attack Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines or to more intensively support Russian, North Korean, and Iranian aggression.

But as the United States struggles to sustain its ability to achieve air superiority to deter the new “Axis of Dictatorships,” it’s now in a race with China to develop, produce, and deploy the next generation, or the sixth generation of air superiority.

The U.S. sixth-generation fighter development effort to succeed the F-22A, now called Next Generation Air Defense (NGAD), dates back at least to 2014, while China’s earliest sixth-generation development efforts likely date back slightly before, around the time the J-20 entered production.

The U.S. and Chinese sixth-generation programs are characterized by intense secrecy with minimal revelations of data intended to shape adversary perceptions.

For the United States, a sixth-generation NGAD is the absolute key to securing a next-generation level of air superiority to ensure the survival of the USAF’s next-generation bombers, like the B-21, and then older fifth-generation F-35s and their large electronic support and tanker support fleets.

The U.S. sixth-generation NGAD fighter should have far greater stealth, much greater range to combat China over the Pacific, higher supercruising speeds, longer-range sensors, and directed-energy weapons like lasers to take out attacking AAMs and eventually attack enemy satellites in low Earth orbit from very high “near space” altitudes.

It should also employ greater artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled computers to process vast databases on enemy systems and actions, manage connections to a “Combat Cloud” of offboard sensors and networks, and manage more capable defensive and offensive electronic warfare systems, all to enable better-informed and faster pilot combat decisions.

Just as important, the U.S. concept for sixth-generation air superiority will also include advances in AI-enabled computers teaming with AI-enabled unmanned combat aircraft, called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), that could perform advanced surveillance, suppress enemy air defenses, or perform aerial escort/combat and ground attack missions.

In March 2023, U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall revealed that the Air Force would only purchase 200 NGAD fighters.

In September 2020, very likely to China’s great surprise, then Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition William Roper announced that a full-scale U.S. NGAD technology demonstrator aircraft had flown. However, he did not reveal its performance data, any images, or who made the prototype.

This declaration of a U.S. “lead” in sixth-generation combat aircraft development likely prompted China to redouble its own sixth-generation program while intensifying its focus on gathering data about the U.S. program to define better and inform its own.

For example, citing numerous U.S. government sources, an article in the Number 6, 2022 issue of the Chinese journal Modern Defense Technology titled, “Analysis of the Development and Combat Concepts of Foreign Sixth-Generation Aircraft,” states:

“According to the development plans of various countries, around 2030, the world’s first sixth-generation aircraft will make its maiden flight and form initial combat capabilities. …The sixth-generation aircraft will develop in the direction of full-frequency and omnidirectional stealth.