Doug Burgum addresses the media outside of Manhattan Criminal Court, on May 14, 2024. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

Compelling backstories also accompany each of the three senators vying for the VP slot.

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Mr. Rubio, 53, is the son of Cuban immigrants, a characteristic that could attract more Latino voters to a Trump–Rubio ticket.

Mr. Scott, 58, who is black and could appeal to that bloc of voters, has noted that his grandfather was “forced out of school as a third-grader and never learned to read or write,” yet Mr. Scott became a U.S. Congressman. “Our family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime,” he told the Republican National Convention in 2020.

Mr. Vance, 39, ascended from Appalachian roots and obtained an Ivy League education, a dramatic tale chronicled in a bestselling memoir that became a 2020 Netflix film, “Hillbilly Elegy.” He won his 2022 election in Ohio after a boost from the former president’s endorsement.

That endorsement was controversial because Mr. Vance had excoriated candidate Trump in 2016. But Mr. Vance said he grew to respect the Trump presidency. “He never bent to the mob,” making him “the best president of my lifetime,” Mr. Vance said at the time of the 2022 endorsement.



Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Donald Trump Jr. answer questions from the media after a campaign stop in West Chester, Ohio, on April 25, 2024. (Photo by Everitt Townsend)
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Donald Trump Jr. answer questions from the media after a campaign stop in West Chester, Ohio, on April 25, 2024. (Photo by Everitt Townsend)

Also in Mr. Vance’s favor is his friendship with the former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr. The former president’s son says he also has a good relationship with Mr. Rubio and likes several of the VP contenders.

During the July 8 episode of his “Triggered” podcast, Donald Trump Jr. said Mr. Rubio’s experience as a three-term senator also carries a perception that he could be too closely tied to “the establishment.”

By contrast, Mr. Vance is only in his second year as a senator, begging the question of whether he is ready to lead.

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Mr. Kaplan points out that media reports seem to be ignoring a significant factor: If President Trump wins reelection, any of the three senators serving as VP would become the “heir apparent, and they’re running for president by year two” of his second presidency.

That could make former President Trump appear to be even more of a “lame duck” as a president who could not serve an additional term, Mr. Kaplan said. He doubts that would happen with Mr. Burgum, making him “the safer pick,” Mr. Kaplan said.



Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) at the Get Out The Vote rally at the North Charleston Convention Center in North Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 14, 2024. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) at the Get Out The Vote rally at the North Charleston Convention Center in North Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 14, 2024. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Jeanette Hoffman, a political consultant who hails from New Jersey, concurs with Mr. Kaplan’s assessment of the purported finalists.

Like former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr. Burgum is “more mild-mannered” and unlikely to overshadow the former president, she said. The same might not be true of “stronger personalities like J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio.”

“Gov. Burgum would be compatible for President Trump on the VP ticket in both style and substance,” she told The Epoch Times. “Trump and Burgum are like-minded in their successful business backgrounds, yet when it comes to governing and policy, Burgum is more of a workhorse, whereas Trump is a show horse.”

She agrees with Mr. Kaplan that a dark horse surprise VP candidate could emerge.

Whichever contender gets the former president’s nod, one factor is essential, Mr. Kaplan said. He needs to pick someone “who will do no harm” to the ticket.

Reuters contributed to this report.