The Actuaries Institute reported a significant decrease in excess deaths in Australia in 2023 compared to the previous year, attributing this decline to the country’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Institute estimated that around 8,400 excess deaths occurred in Australia in 2023, down from nearly 20,000 in 2022. Excess deaths refer to instances where the number of deaths from all causes, including COVID-19, exceeds the expected numbers based on historical data.
Of the 8,400 excess deaths, COVID-19 was identified as the underlying cause of 4,600 deaths (55%), with an additional 1,500 deaths (18%) being attributed to COVID-19 as a contributing factor. The remaining 2,300 cases had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate, but many were likely linked to secondary impacts of the disease, such as delays in medical care for chronic conditions due to the high number of COVID-19 cases.
Furthermore, non-COVID-19 excess deaths were found to be more prevalent among individuals aged 75 and older for both genders, as well as women under 45. With the decrease in the number of deaths, COVID-19 dropped to the ninth leading cause of death in Australia in 2023, down from its third-place ranking in the previous year.
Compared to other countries, Australia had a relatively low excess death rate, ranking 35th among 40 countries that published excess mortality data between 2020 and 2023. The report also highlighted that COVID-19 vaccines were unlikely to cause excess mortality, with a minimal number of deaths attributed to vaccination compared to the lives saved by vaccination efforts.
Looking ahead, the Actuaries Institute forecasted a further decrease in excess deaths in the future but noted that COVID-19 was likely to continue to contribute to some excess mortality. The report also raised concerns about the accuracy of data on COVID-19 deaths, with discussions during a recent Senate inquiry hearing regarding the classification of deaths related to the virus.
Overall, the report emphasized the complex nature of determining the causes of deaths, especially in cases where individuals may have had pre-existing chronic conditions. The Actuaries Institute suggested that the “new normal” level of mortality in Australia is expected to be higher than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. Could you please rewrite this for me?
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