The 2024 presidential race is unlike any other in recent history, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump deadlocked in a race that has taken presidential politics into uncharted territory. Trump survived an assassination attempt, was formally nominated by his party, and named Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, who became the Democratic nominee without winning a single primary election.
Political experts agree that despite the unusual circumstances, the old rules of politics still apply. The winner will likely be the candidate who can maintain their core constituents, appeal to independent voters on issues, and turn out the vote on Election Day.
Polling shows that the race is neck and neck, with Harris and Trump polling within the margin of error in national polls. The battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina could determine the Electoral College vote. Harris has a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The Trump campaign is searching for new messaging after Biden’s departure from the race. Experts say they must move beyond personal attacks and focus on issues. Harris has gained momentum due to her youth and newness to the race, presenting herself as the candidate for a new generation.
Both candidates have winning issues they can focus on, with Harris’s strongest issue being abortion access. The race is still up for grabs, and both sides are working to gain an advantage in the highly competitive election. He observed that access to abortion has now become the top priority for Democrats, as the pro-life cause was for many Republicans in the past.
Experts believe that Trump has several advantages in the upcoming election. Immigration remains a winning issue for Republicans, despite Harris’ efforts to discredit Trump’s previous stance on a bipartisan border security bill.
Republicans also have a strong position on international affairs, with the Biden administration’s stance on Ukraine and Israel being viewed as confusing by some. While advocating for military aid to these countries, the administration has also imposed restrictions on how the weapons can be used.
According to Dusso, the key to winning in politics is still the same: identify a problem and offer a solution.
Both campaigns are working hard to mobilize voters in swing states. The Harris campaign has a network of field offices and volunteers, while the Trump campaign’s initiative, Trump Force 47, has engaged tens of thousands of volunteers.
Fundraising efforts have been impressive for both campaigns, with the Harris campaign reporting $310 million raised in July and the Trump campaign raising $137 million in the same month.
Voter turnout will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. Harris will need to rally younger voters, while Trump will focus on turning out rural voters, especially men.
The Latino vote is a key demographic that both parties are targeting, with experts divided on whether it will shift decisively towards Trump or back towards the Democrats.
Biden won over some disgruntled Republicans in the last election, and Harris is now working to secure those voters. It remains to be seen if she can retain those who switched sides for Biden in 2020.
With less than three months until the election, the candidates will need to refine their messaging and focus on key issues to appeal to voters. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 5.
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