In the 2024 Senate races, Republicans need to gain two seats to regain control. However, a loss in Texas could jeopardize their chances. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has made Cruz appear vulnerable, but recent polls show Cruz maintaining a lead. With Republicans needing to gain only a couple of seats to secure a majority in the Senate, losing even one seat could be critical. Allred’s quiet campaign strategy has been praised by Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright, who believes Republicans should not underestimate him.
Despite surveys showing Cruz in the lead, Seawright believes the race will change dramatically before November. GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak sees the contest as close, with Cruz reflecting the policy views of most Texas voters. Allred has been successful in fundraising, surpassing O’Rourke’s numbers from 2018. The race is reminiscent of Cruz’s close call in 2018, where he narrowly defeated O’Rourke.
Democrats think Allred’s moderate image could help him win in 2024. Allred’s “Texas Offense” campaign aims to mobilize Democratic voters across the state. Jones notes that similar efforts were made by O’Rourke in the past. Allred’s portrayal as a moderate Democrat, especially on immigration issues, could appeal to a broader base of voters. In comparing the strengths of both candidates, Jones believes Cruz may not have all Trump voters locked down.
There is possibly one out of every ten Trump voters who is not currently supporting Cruz,” Jones stated.
In contrast, Jones explained, “Allred would have secured all of the Biden vote; now he will receive all of the Harris vote, while a significant portion of the Trump vote remains undecided or leaning towards Allred.”
The Rice scholar was referring to Cruz being the final Republican candidate to withdraw from the 2016 primaries and concede the GOP nomination to former President Donald Trump. The Texas senator has been a strong supporter of Trump in the years following.
“Trump is expected to defeat Harris by a larger margin than Ted Cruz will defeat Colin Allred, if he does,” Jones commented.
“Currently, I am not ready to predict that Allred will surpass Cruz, but I believe he is in a better position to make it a much tighter race than Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.”
