Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his prepared speech at the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, said: “It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
Have the central bank’s tightening efforts since March 2022 finally doused the red-hot, post-COVID-19 pandemic U.S. labor market?
So far this year, the number of new jobs has totaled about 1.9 million, compared with 1.4 million in 2023. The unemployment rate is at 4.3 percent, compared with 3.5 percent.
Over the past year, market watchers have observed various other economic indicators that suggest the jobs arena is loosening and becoming better balanced, in line with pre-crisis conditions.
Hiring, Quitting, Expectations
The number of job openings has declined by about 1.1 million since September 2023, with vacancies totaling a little more than 8 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Research has highlighted that employers are putting their staffing plans on ice.
Businesses’ reasons for not adding staff or trimming the fat vary economically and politically.
Troy Miller, president and CEO of National Religious Broadcasters, said that although some positions have been open for several months, the company is not looking to add new positions.
As a result, hiring plans have been frozen until the fourth quarter, and economic conditions will be assessed to determine how confident his organization is moving forward.
“We’re waiting to see after the election,” Miller told The Epoch Times. “This is what I hear from people in our association, quite honestly: The economy is not strong. They’re very concerned about where that’s going.”
Workers are also nervous.
The number of people quitting their jobs, according to the Department of Labor, has tumbled by about 300,000 to its lowest level since November 2020.
The regional central bank’s SCE data revealed that fewer respondents than a year ago would expect to find a job in the next three months if they were terminated today.
A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Deerfield, Ill., on July 25, 2024.
Nam Y. Huh, File/AP Photo
Researchers also found that 4.4 percent of those currently employed expect to be unemployed in the next four months, up from 3.4 percent in November 2023.
Job loss concerns are ubiquitous across the U.S. labor market, with 55 percent of full-time workers worried about losing their positions, a recent AuthorityHacker survey found.
2 or More Jobs
Over the past year, the number of people working two or more jobs has steadily risen and hovered near an all-time high of approximately 8.5 million.
They account for 5.3 percent of those currently employed, little changed from a year ago.
