The North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom is expected to grow significantly over the next five years due to record production in the United States. According to a forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Sept. 3, export capacity is projected to more than double from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028. This growth is contingent on 10 projects in Mexico, Canada, and the United States beginning operations as planned.
The Department of Energy (DOE) recently approved its first LNG export permit to a non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) nation in seven months, signaling a positive trend for the industry. The approval allows for increased U.S. LNG exports to non-FTA nations by 3 percent. By 2024, the DOE has approved 46.45 Bcf/d of natural gas exports, including re-exports to Canada and Mexico.
EIA estimates that by 2028, LNG export capacity will grow by 9.7 Bcf/d in the United States, 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, and 0.6 Bcf/d in Mexico. The expansion is driven by projects like Plaquemines, Corpus Christi, Golden Pass, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur. The United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, with exports increasing by 12 percent over the previous year.
With increasing export and import capacities and growing demand for natural gas, analysts predict sustained expansion in the global LNG market. Industry reports forecast the market to grow from $74.6 billion in 2023 to $103.41 billion by 2028.
The recent approval of New Fortress Energy’s LNG permit by the DOE allows for exports to non-FTA countries, providing flexibility for the company to use its new terminal. The permit allows for the export of 1.4 million tons of LNG annually for five years. The DOE emphasized that the approval does not indicate a flood of permit approvals for pending projects.
The temporary pause on new LNG export applications imposed by the federal government in January was lifted by a federal judge’s ruling in July. The White House cited the need for a study to update evaluation factors for LNG exports, which is expected to be completed by December 2025. The outcome of the study’s rule-making process will depend on the results of the upcoming elections. Agreement was reached with Louisiana’s attorney general and 15 other states’ attorneys general who contested the pause in a March lawsuit.
In his 62-page ruling, Cain criticized the pause, which he referred to as a ban—a term that the DOE disputes—as “perhaps the epiphany of ideocracy.”
NFE’s export permit was among the 14 in limbo under the pause, impacting projects in Louisiana and Texas, as argued by House Republicans in hearings in 2023 and 2024.
The GOP-led chamber passed HR 1 in 2023, which prohibits a president from pausing LNG exports through executive order and eliminates most of the federal government’s renewable energy programs. However, the bill was never sent to the Democrat-controlled Senate.
The Sierra Club’s U.S. LNG Export Tracker lists proposed terminal and pipeline projects across three countries, including nearly 40 in various planning stages.
Industry groups such as the American Gas Association, National Propane Gas Association, and American Petroleum Institute (API) praised the DOE’s NFE approval. API, in a September 4 post, called it “step one” in supporting policies that advance U.S. energy leadership.
NFE chair and CEO Wes Edens stated in a September 3 release that NFE can now supply cheaper and cleaner natural gas to underserved markets worldwide, furthering the goal of accelerating the world’s energy transition.
Climate change groups criticized the decision, citing an April Oxfam of America report estimating that the 14 LNG export projects could emit as much greenhouse gas as 532 coal plants.
Oil Change International described NFE’s project as “reckless” in a series of September 3 posts, highlighting the planet-heating potential of methane in LNG.
Mitch Jones, Managing Director of Policy and Litigation at Food & Water Watch, called the authorization “ridiculous.”
All groups pledged to continue their fight in the public square and in the courts, with a lawsuit filed against the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on September 4 for approving a Louisiana LNG project.
A coalition led by the Southern Environmental Law Center filed a suit in the District of Columbia’s U.S. District Court, arguing that Venture Global’s CP2 LNG project in Cameron Parish violates the Natural Gas Act and would harm Louisiana’s commercial fishing industry.
An additional lawsuit filed by The Sierra Club in Louisiana state District Court on August 21 made similar claims against the project, which would connect the Louisiana terminal to a natural gas plant in Texas via an 85-mile pipeline. Can you please rephrase this sentence?
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