Political experts are weighing in on the impact of debates on election outcomes. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are scheduled to debate on CBS News on Oct. 1, less than 50 days before the election. Experts are questioning whether vice presidential debates truly influence election results and, if so, how. Both candidates offer contrasting visions for the country, with Walz highlighting the Biden–Harris administration’s record and progressive policies, and Vance advocating for former President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.
Political science professor David Schultz noted that the candidates seem to be focusing on their base supporters rather than moderates. However, the debate serves as an opportunity for both candidates to appeal to undecided voters in what has been a unique election year. Studies suggest that presidential debates have little impact on voters’ choices, as viewers are typically politically engaged before the debate. Vice presidential debates have historically had little effect on polling due to lower viewership compared to presidential debates.
Debates can influence undecided voters’ perceptions of candidates, as seen in Biden’s performance leading to calls for his withdrawal from the race. While vice presidential debates may not significantly impact election outcomes, they provide candidates with a platform to showcase their ideas and policies. Past instances, such as Sarah Palin’s impact on John McCain’s campaign, demonstrate that vice presidential candidates can draw attention but may not sway the election’s course.
Experts believe that debates, including vice presidential matchups, can have a lasting impression on viewers and influence their perceptions of candidates. The 2020 debate between Pence and Harris, for example, resonated with viewers with its discussion of the Trump administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. While some debates may not alter election results, they play a crucial role in shaping public opinion and highlighting key issues.
Area of Contrast
“There are real contrasts between the Trump–Pence and Biden–Harris tickets in the approaches to COVID-19, to the economy, and to the changing demographics of the country,” she wrote.
Debate Strategy
Both vice presidential candidates have been diligently preparing behind the scenes for the upcoming debate.
Vance has enlisted Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) to stand in for Walz, studying the governor’s past debates and policy positions. On the other hand, Walz has sought the help of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who previously stood in for Pence during Harris’ pre-debate preparations in 2020.
Buttigieg, a vocal supporter of the Biden–Harris administration, has been defending its record on various platforms. Schultz advised both candidates to avoid mistakes and focus on presenting a strong case for their presidential candidate.
Dusso emphasized the importance of appearing competent on a wide range of topics before delving into their campaign’s key strengths. For Walz, this includes highlighting access to abortion, healthcare, education, and advocating for Project 2025. On the other hand, Dusso suggested Vance focus on policy areas such as the border, economy, and crime, as these are seen as strengths by the average voter.
