Harris, Trump Campaigns Lean Into Final 30 Days of Election

Political experts informed The Epoch Times that various factors will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome, such as ad spending, ground game, and, most importantly, voter turnout. With just a month left before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are intensifying their campaigns. Both candidates are focusing on advertising in battleground states and implementing ground strategies to boost voter turnout. The final 30 days of the election cycle will be critical, with metrics like campaign spending, donations, and field offices opening being key indicators. It remains uncertain which campaign holds the upper hand in the remaining weeks leading up to the election. Polling data suggests a tight race between Harris and Trump, with varying results in battleground states. Experts caution that polling errors could swing either way, as seen in previous elections. Voter turnout will be a significant factor in determining the election outcome, with the 2020 election seeing record-high turnout. The campaigns are working to mobilize their base and attract undecided voters in the final stretch. However, voters who identified as “mostly conservative” favored Trump by 87 percent to 7 percent, while “mostly liberal” voters backed Clinton by 78 percent to 13 percent.

Political experts told The Epoch Times that before Trump’s rise in 2016, lower turnout usually favored Republican presidential candidates.

“Pre-2016, the conventional wisdom would have been higher turnout on that is usually good for the Democratic Party,” Fowler said, explaining that working-class voters previously leaned toward Democrats and historically voted less frequently.

In the current election cycle, it’s not clear which party would benefit most from high or low turnout on either side. Fowler says that many of the working-class voters who backed President Barack Obama in 2012 pulled the lever for Trump in 2016.

“It could go either way, and it’s not obvious that the higher turnout is actually better for the Democratic Party this year,” he said.

If there is high voter turnout outside of the cities that are Harris’s base, that would be good news for Trump, Hopkins said.

Ad Spending
For the final sprint between Oct. 4 and Nov. 5, Democrats have reserved $301 million for advertisements compared to $184 million from Republicans, according to the advertising analysis firm AdImpact. Biden spent $839.1 million on media through the entire 2020 election cycle, and Trump spent $544.6 million.

That was a significant increase from 2016 when Clinton spent $351.3 million on media compared to Trump’s $194.9 million.

This year, especially the final 30 days of the election cycle, poses a significant challenge to Harris as she is not nearly as well known to many voters as either Clinton or Biden were in their respective elections. The money reserved for Harris’s race in the final four weeks is nearly equal to Clinton’s media budget for the entire 2016 election cycle.

Before Trump’s 2016 win, not getting outspent was a good way to win a presidential election, Neihesel said.

“Trump did not outspend Hillary in 2016 and still managed to win in that environment,” he said, adding that Trump also benefited from free media coverage leading up to election day.

Ground Game
Clinton reportedly opened more than three times as many campaign offices in critical states as Trump in 2016. Trump touted the small team that launched him to the top of the GOP ticket that year and opted for a similar strategy ahead of the general election. Despite the ground advantage on her opponent, Clinton still lost.

“[Trump] was behind when it came to things like field offices opening up and still again, managed to win in ‘16 and make it again another very, very close race in 2020,” Neiheisel said.

This year, Trump has embraced a new strategy, reportedly opening more than 300 offices throughout the battleground states with more than 27,000 trained “Trump Force 47 Captains” as staff members.

Harris, by contrast, has roughly 238 offices throughout the battlegrounds, with approximately 1,750 paid staff members in those locations. The rest of her field team is focused on the ground, working to build enthusiasm among the Democratic base and any remaining undecided voters.

“We know that ground campaigning makes a difference,” Fowler said. “We know that more door knocks and more phone calls and more direct mail, those things do add up and can have a meaningful effect on participation.”

Looking Forward
With just 30 days left before Election Day, Harris is seemingly more vulnerable on the path to triumph.

“Right now, some of the disadvantages that Harris would have are just the inability to answer the question: ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’” Neiheisel said, calling it her chief liability.

“It’s certainly not in terms of resources. She seems to have made up quite a bit of ground on that in a hurry, given that she started her campaign fairly late,” he said. “The flip side there is that she’s probably better resourced right now than the Trump campaign. Whether that matters, I don’t know.”

Much has been said about the potential for “October surprises,” which are sudden news events in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Eleven days before the 2016 election, FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency had discovered new emails in its investigation into Clinton’s email server.

“It’s easier to imagine something that could really hurt Harris more so than something that could hurt Trump,” Fowler said. Trump has survived multiple scandals in the past, including the release of the Access Hollywood tape in 2016. A corruption scandal in the Biden administration “could end up hurting Harris,” Fowler said.

Even so, Harris will likely emphasize the recently released new version of special counsel Jack Smith’s indictment of Trump in Washington, regarding his alleged actions after the 2020 election. It was the focus of her campaign rally with former GOP congresswoman Liz Cheney in Wisconsin on Oct. 3.

Many independent voters, Neiheisel said, are affected by “whatever information environment exists … around two weeks out” from Election Day.

There’s also the question of undecided voters. In many battleground state polls, the 5 percent to 15 percent of undecided voters will likely decide the winner.

Traditionally, those voters would likely back the “challenger candidate,” Neiheisel said, but since Harris is trying to brand Trump as an incumbent, despite her own quasi-incumbency, it’s not clear who these voters will see as the true challenger.

Lee agrees, and said she has “flipped the narrative” to present herself as the “fresh face.”

“I don’t really believe there’s many people that are undecided right now. I think they secretly know who they’re voting for, and my guess is they’re going to break more for Harris than Trump,” Lee said.

As to how either campaign moves the needle in the last 30 days to claim victory, Fowler suggests focusing on issues that will appeal to those in the middle.

“My advice for either campaign would be pretty similar, which is [to] focus on the important bread and butter issues people care about, and try to take moderate, reasonable positions that convey competence,” he said. Please rewrite this sentence.

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