The next president will likely preside over one of the most consequential periods in the nation’s relations with communist China, an adversary that
has the intention and capacity to displace the current U.S.-led world order.
Eight in 10 Americans view China unfavorably, according to a Pew Research Center
report released in July.
Washington also has a consensus that the Chinese regime poses a
threat as it closes the power gap with the United States in military, diplomatic, and technological domains.
The current approach to China began with former President Donald Trump. Identifying China as a “strategic competitor,” the Trump administration took a new approach to U.S.–China relations. It imposed broad tariffs on Chinese goods, controlled Chinese access to American semiconductor technology, and pivoted national security strategy from the Middle East to China and Russia.
The Biden administration continued many of the same policies, and Washington’s China policy will likely continue to be hawkish. However, the two candidates will also have distinct approaches, owing to their personal differences and depending on whom they appoint to key positions.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump is broadly expected to resume his China policies in the first term.
Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris has indicated no sign of divergence from the Biden administration’s China policies.
Trade
The two candidates agree on controlling strategic goods and technologies, investing in innovation, re-shoring supply chains, and combating Beijing’s unfair trade practices.
The aim is to ensure “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century,” Harris has
said repeatedly.
Last month, the Biden administration
finalized its tariffs, retaining all Trump-era rates and sharply increasing them on selected critical technology and minerals.
During a speech on the economy in Pittsburgh on Sept. 25, the vice president
vowed, “I will never hesitate to take swift and strong measures when China undermines the rules of the road at the expense of our workers, our communities, and our companies.”
Meanwhile, the Trump-centered Republican platform also
pledges to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations status, which grants it free trade benefits with the United States; phase out imports of
essential goods that include electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals; and stop China from buying American real estate and industries.
Dennis Wilder, a former national security and intelligence officer who held several senior roles in the Bush and Obama administrations, believes Trump’s threat of higher tariffs is merely a negotiation tool to achieve a trade deal similar to the phase one U.S.–China
trade deal signed in 2020.
The CMA CGM White Shark cargo ship prepares to dock at Port Miami as the United States and China continue their trade war, in Miami Beach on May 16, 2019. China was one of the top trading countries in 2018 at the port.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Stephen Ezell, a vice president at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation think tank, believes Trump will take the pledges in the Republican platform seriously, particularly revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations status, because Beijing has failed to comply with its commitments as a member of the World Trade Organization, he told The Epoch Times.
Beijing did
not fulfill its pledge in the phase one deal to buy an additional $200 billion in U.S. products over two years. During a meeting with farmers in Pennsylvania’s Smithton, a city near Pittsburgh, on Sept. 23, Trump said, if reelected, his first call would be to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, asking him to honor the deal.
During the final months of his term, Trump raised the idea of separating the United States and Chinese economies, known as decoupling. His former trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, a rumored candidate for the next secretary of the Treasury, advocates the same approach.
Harris and her Democratic Party have a different
view; she believes in derisking, not decoupling.
James Lewis, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said decoupling is already happening.
As to whether a future Harris administration would differ from Biden’s approach, Lewis told The Epoch Times that he would watch the pace of decoupling and the measures adopted to reinforce it.
Security
Despite a growing consensus in Washington on the need to counter the Chinese regime’s aggressive actions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, differences remain on how to avoid military conflicts.
Trump emphasizes maintaining peace by showing military strength. During his term, he focused on modernizing nuclear weapons and stopped the trend of cuts to the U.S. nuclear stockpile.
A 2018 nuclear policy document
listed that one of the roles of nuclear weapons was for “hedging against an uncertain future.” The Biden administration
dropped this language in its 2022 update.
President Joe Biden’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review also canceled the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program for cost reasons. However, Congress
continued funding the program, although it was not included in the Biden administration’s defense budget requests. According to its proponents, the program
enhances the credibility of U.S. deterrence.
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