The ruling party and opposition in the South Caucasus nation are accusing each other of colluding with foreign powers ahead of the October 26 election.
Analysis
Georgia, a small country in the South Caucasus region, is gearing up for crucial parliamentary elections next week that could shape its geopolitical future, according to some experts.
“The outcome of the election will not only determine future foreign policy but will also impact Georgia’s history for years to come,” said Giorgi Badridze, a political analyst and former Georgian diplomat, in an interview with The Epoch Times.
While Georgia has aspirations to join the EU and NATO, critics accuse the ruling Georgian Dream party of trying to align the country with Moscow.
Georgian Dream, in power since 2012, will face a coalition of pro-Western opposition parties in the upcoming parliamentary polls on October 26.
“If Georgian Dream remains in power, Georgia will face significant political and economic isolation,” warned Badridze, who served as Tbilisi’s ambassador to London from 2009 to 2013.
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“If the opposition coalition wins, Georgia will realign with the West and enhance its integration process.”
Since the 2008 war with Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Tbilisi has had no diplomatic ties with Moscow.
Despite this, critics of Georgian Dream claim that the party is adopting repressive Russian tactics and alienating Western allies.
According to Badridze, Georgian Dream has been imitating Russian strategies to suppress opponents and has recently begun spreading anti-Western propaganda similar to Russia.
Georgian pro-democracy activists protest against a “foreign influence” bill outside parliament in Tbilisi on April 15, 2024. Controversy Surrounds the Adoption of a “Russian Law”
Critics of Georgia’s ruling party point to a recently passed law known as the “Transparency of Foreign Influence Law” as evidence of their pro-Kremlin stance. This law mandates that organizations receiving over 20 percent of their funding from abroad must register as “organizations pursuing foreign interests” or face financial penalties. Despite opposition from Brussels and Washington, the Georgian parliament, dominated by Georgian Dream and its allies, ratified the law in May.
Supporters argue that the law is necessary to protect Georgia from foreign influences disguised as “civil society” and to uphold national sovereignty by countering foreign-imposed values. Critics, however, both domestic and foreign, fear that the law will suppress free speech, hinder Georgia’s EU membership aspirations, and liken it to repressive legislation used by the Kremlin.
The law’s adoption sparked protests in Tbilisi, where anti-law demonstrators clashed with police. While Moscow denies involvement in the law, defenders argue that it promotes transparency and is less restrictive than similar laws in other countries like Russia and the United States.
Washington and Brussels responded to Georgia’s enactment of the law with criticism, imposing restrictions and suspending assistance. Georgian Dream accused the West of interference and attempting to influence the upcoming election. The UK canceled security talks with Georgia, citing concerns over democratic setbacks and anti-Western rhetoric by the ruling party.
Despite these measures, some downplay their severity, emphasizing the EU’s duty to hold Georgia accountable to its norms and standards as a candidate-country. The ongoing dispute reflects larger tensions over Georgia’s domestic and foreign policies and its aspirations for EU integration.
Photo Credit: David Mdzinarishvili/Reuters
Fears of Post-Election Unrest
Some analysts warn that the Western sanctions imposed on Georgia could have unintended consequences, potentially fueling support for the ruling party and driving the country closer to Moscow.
According to Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, a Turkish political analyst, “These sanctions on Georgia, particularly by the United States, and the suspension of its EU membership bid, leave Tbilisi with no choice but to open the door to Russia.” Erol, who is the founder and president of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy, believes that such actions could increase pro-Russian sentiment in Georgia and erode trust in the West.
Erol questions the wisdom of Western measures, asking, “Does the West not see that such moves prepare favorable ground for Russia, despite claiming that the ruling party will bring Georgia into the Russian orbit?”
Similarly, other experts like Pritchin suggest that the punitive actions taken by the West could actually strengthen support for the ruling party, Georgian Dream, in the upcoming parliamentary election.
Givi Mikanadze, a lawmaker from Georgian Dream, has raised concerns about potential civil unrest incited by opposition activists and their affiliates in the event of the ruling party’s victory in the election.
Georgia’s parliament speaker, Papuashvili, has also warned of a possible constitutional coup. These claims echo similar accusations made by Russian officials, who have accused Western powers of destabilizing Georgia to overthrow the current government.
While some experts, like Pritchin, acknowledge the possibility of foreign interference in Georgia, others, including Washington, dismiss such allegations as “Russian disinformation.”
Badridze rejects the notion of “color revolutions” being orchestrated by foreign entities, attributing such fears to authoritarian regimes’ distrust of popular dissent and criticism.
