A recent study from Arizona Christian University (ACU) found that approximately 102 million people of faith, including 32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church, are expected to abstain from voting in the upcoming November election. The lead researcher of the study is urging churches to mobilize their congregations to participate in the electoral process.
According to the ACU study, enthusiasm for this election among people of faith is lower than usual, with 57 percent citing their dislike for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as the primary reason for their apathy. Additionally, many respondents expressed that none of the candidates represented their core values, leading to a significant portion of expected non-voters.
The study, conducted by George Barna and his team at ACU, surveyed 2,000 adults from August to September 2024. It revealed varying expected turnout rates among different segments of people of faith, with an estimated 32 million Christians who regularly attend church services, 14 million evangelical churchgoers, and 19 million Catholic service attendees not likely to vote.
The study also highlighted a decrease in enthusiasm among Trump’s anti-abortion supporters, with some activists expressing concern over the former president’s shifting stance on the issue. Despite efforts to moderate his position, Trump’s wavering stance on abortion has caused division among his supporters, particularly those who prioritize pro-life principles.
The findings of the study have sparked calls for churches and pastors to encourage their congregations to participate in the election. Many believe that the potential non-voters, especially among born-again Christians, could have a significant impact on the election outcome. Former President Trump and other prominent figures have emphasized the importance of Christian voters turning out to vote.
Critics have pointed out that many churches are hesitant to engage in political discussions, citing the Johnson Amendment which restricts political endorsements by nonprofit organizations, including churches. Despite some attempts to allow churches more leeway in political engagement, concerns remain about the role of religious institutions in influencing voter turnout.
However, since executive orders cannot supersede laws enacted by Congress, this did not alter the law or its enforcement.
In reality, churches have not faced much backlash for violating the Johnson Amendment. According to The Washington Post, “more than 2,000 mainly evangelical Christian clergy have intentionally broken the law since 2008 in protest; only one has been audited by the IRS, and none punished, according to the Alliance Defending Freedom.”
It is no secret to those familiar with evangelical churches that sermons often delve into political topics. Congregants frequently hear preaching against abortion and are discouraged from voting for any candidate who supports it. Despite this, political sermons rarely focus on the Bible’s teachings on being welcoming to immigrants.
Efforts are being made to prompt the IRS to address violations of the Johnson Amendment. The Freedom From Religion Foundation (FFRF) has urged the IRS to investigate and revoke the nonprofit status of Texas megachurch Lakepointe Church following a sermon by Pastor Josh Howerton titled “How to Vote Like Jesus.”
The lack of consistent IRS action in cases of deliberate and widely publicized violations has raised doubts about the effectiveness of the amendment. While churches are permitted to engage in political activities, they risk losing their tax-exempt status. However, some churches seem eager to maintain their tax-free privileges, hoping for a repeal of the Johnson Amendment if Trump is reelected.
Barna argues that churches can have an impact without explicitly endorsing a candidate. By encouraging churchgoers to vote as a biblical duty, it is estimated that around five million regular church attendees could be influenced to vote, potentially altering the election’s outcome.
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