About our polling averages
Our polling averages are compiled using data from The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight. We take into consideration various factors such as the timeliness and sample size of each poll, whether the poll reflects likely voters, and any shifts in other polls since the data was collected.
We also assess the credibility of each pollster by examining their recent accuracy in elections, membership in professional polling organizations, and use of probability-based sampling methods. Pollsters meeting at least two of these criteria are classified as “select pollsters” if they conduct polls for nonpartisan entities. Learn more about our methodology.
The New York Times collaborates with Siena College to conduct national and state polls, which are included in our averages. Stay updated on Times/Siena polling here.
In Maine and Nebraska, electoral votes are allocated differently, with two votes going to the statewide winner and one vote per congressional district winner. Historical results for these districts are based on votes within their current boundaries.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
