Partisanship Determines What Americans Believe About Crime

A recent release of polling data indicates that Americans’ perceptions of nationwide crime rates are starting to align more closely with reality. However, this shift may be attributed more to partisan influences skewing the data in a more accurate direction than to a genuine change in public awareness.

According to Megan Brenan at Gallup, there has been an improvement in Americans’ views on crime in the U.S., with the percentage of respondents believing that national crime has increased over the past year decreasing by 13 points to 64%. Similarly, the number of respondents considering crime in the U.S. as “extremely” or “very serious” dropped by 7 points to 56% over the same period.

While this may seem like a positive development reflecting the actual decline in crime rates, data from the FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics show significant reductions in both violent and property crime rates since the 1990s. Despite this downward trend, a majority of Americans have consistently perceived an increase in crime levels, with partisanship playing a significant role in shaping these perceptions.

Partisan differences are evident in the polling results, with Democrats holding more positive views on crime incidence compared to independents and Republicans. This trend suggests that political affiliations strongly influence public perceptions of crime, with former President Donald Trump’s rhetoric potentially influencing Republican viewpoints.

Overall, Americans’ ability to accurately judge crime trends has been historically poor, with public perceptions often contradicting actual crime data. However, these perceptions hold significant weight in influencing policy decisions, particularly in the criminal justice system where prosecutors’ actions are influenced by public opinion.

Despite crime rates showing a downward trajectory over the years, the U.S. continues to have the highest incarceration rate globally. Public opinion on crime plays a crucial role in shaping policy and the treatment of individuals within the criminal justice system.