The gender gap in politics has widened since 2020, as indicated by recent polls. Some analysts suggest that an increase in voter turnout along gender lines could significantly impact the election, considering that a slight majority of voters are women.
However, there are conflicting opinions on whether the gap is closing in the days leading up to the election. Some argue that factors like education and race may play a more significant role in shaping votersâ intentions.
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Some analysts predict that the gender gap in this election could be historically significant.
âIn this one, the surprise would be if it doesnât set a record, and that would be anything, I believe, over 20 percent,â Lee Miringoff of the Marist Poll told The Epoch Times.
One reason for the widening gap could be higher voter engagement in this election, which would amplify existing gender preferences. Miringoff explained that as Harris targets more women and Trump attracts more men, the gap widens, assuming one candidate outperforms the other.
âThere are two things that are being considered. One is preferences, and that creates the gap,â Miringoff said. âThe other is the turnout, and whether one gender actually becomes a bigger part of the election.â
In national elections, female voters historically outnumber male voters by 2 to 4 percentage points, according to Miringoff. An increase in the percentage of women participating in the election could have a significant impact.
âIf women ended up [voting] at 55 percent and men at 45, that would be a big deal,â he said.
Voters line up to cast their ballots on the first day of early voting at the Stamford Government Center in Stamford, Conn., on Oct. 21, 2024. John Moore/Getty Images
However, this data only includes information from six states that provide gender information on votersâColorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginiaâand represents less than a quarter of the 62.9 million early and absentee votes cast as of Oct. 31.
Gap May Be Narrowing
Both campaigns are making efforts to address their gender disparities, with Trump appealing to women and Harris targeting men. Both have centered their appeals on the theme of womenâs safety.
âI am your protector,â Trump declared to women at a rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 23. âAs president, I have to be your protector.â
Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee and daughter-in-law of the former president, has organized womenâs events in swing states.
The safety message has resonated with some women for whom border security is a critical issue.
âWhat matters most to me is border security,â stated Katya LaGrow, 45, from Michigan. âI believe that a lot of that keeps me up at night, worrying about what is entering American soil.â
Karina Thompson, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has been working to gain support from male voters, with help from former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama. They argue that sexism is a factor in the lack of support for Harris among men and emphasize the importance of men voting for a woman.
Barack Obama specifically called on men to consider the idea of having a woman as president, highlighting the support women have always provided to men. Michelle Obama echoed this sentiment during a campaign appearance with Harris, urging men to support Harris for the sake of their wives and daughters.
Some voters, like Samuel Umuma and Dave Keener, are motivated by Harrisâs commitment to protecting access to abortion and see her as the candidate who will benefit society as a whole. Others, like John Sherman, appreciate Harrisâs character qualities and integrity.
Recent polling shows that both campaigns have narrowed their gender disadvantages, with Harris leading among women in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Pollster Jim Lee notes that there isnât a significant gender gap in the latest surveys.
Experts caution against focusing solely on demographics, as factors like education and race also play a role in voter preferences. While Democrats traditionally win the majority of black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, Trump has made gains in these demographics. For example, a recent NAACP survey shows growing support for Harris among black voters, but there has been a shift among Hispanic and Asian American voters towards the Republican party.
As Election Day approaches, early in-person voting is already underway in 47 states. Stay tuned for the final results on Nov. 5. Please rewrite this sentence. Please rewrite this sentence.
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