Scott, who has traditionally won his elections by narrow margins, appears to have an advantage this year based on polls and voter registration data. In the race for Florida’s senate seat, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is facing off against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) in a contest that could determine control of the upper chamber of Congress in 2025.
Despite the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s efforts to target Scott with a “multimillion-dollar” television ad buy, Florida has become increasingly challenging for Democrats, with Republicans holding a significant voter registration advantage. However, Democrats remain hopeful, citing Scott’s narrow victory over former Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018.
Polls have shown varying margins between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell, with some indicating a close race and others showing Scott in the lead. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Republican,” but experts believe it is still competitive.
The outcome of the race could be influenced by two constitutional amendments on the ballot this year, as well as turnout among different demographics. Scott’s platform includes support for patriotic education and tough-on-crime policies, while Mucarsel-Powell emphasizes healthcare access and immigration reform.
Both candidates have significant fundraising totals, with Scott raising roughly $40 million and Mucarsel-Powell raising $31.2 million. Despite their differing platforms and campaign strategies, both candidates are urging voters to turn out and make their voices heard in November.
Giménez is running on a platform this year that focuses on addressing inflation, the increasing cost of living, skyrocketing home insurance premiums in Florida, and creating more job and vocational training opportunities.
Both Candidates Have Advantages
While Scott may not be outspending his opponent by significant margins this time, he maintains a lead in polls and voter registration data, especially if Republican voter turnout is high for the Senate incumbent.
“Republicans have the advantage due to higher Republican voter registrations, but Democrats have been actively mobilizing voters in the state during this election cycle,” Austin explained.
Mucarsel-Powell also has her own strengths.
The former congresswoman is described as “very sociable, outgoing,” and well-liked in her previous role, according to Benton.
“Being a woman with the right stance on abortion could significantly benefit her against Scott, who opposes Florida’s Amendment 4 on abortion access,” the professor noted.
Austin concurred.
“Her main advantage lies in increased voter turnout due to Amendment 4 and the Trump-Harris race. Her main challenge is Scott’s higher name recognition and incumbent status,” she added.
Despite being endorsed by prominent Democrats like former President Barack Obama, Scott faces a tough challenge from the underdog.
“Either candidate could emerge victorious,” Austin concluded.
