Commentary
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief Xi Jinping seems to be defying gravity by steering China’s economy towards a Maoist “internal circulation” model while also appearing to have outmaneuvered his adversaries within the CCP and the public eye.
An analogy can be drawn to a skydiver jumping without a parachute and nonchalantly saying, “So far, so good,” as he descends.
Ultimately, Xi will have to settle for a temporary reduction in China’s strategic reach due to economic collapse or face replacement by his own party—or possibly both.
This illusion of control is unlikely to last much longer, with the real question being what will trigger change within mainland China.
Despite widespread discontent towards Xi from CCP members and growing public protests, he is intensifying purges of his political rivals and tightening economic restrictions while superficially discussing support measures for various sectors.
The recent implementation of the “Article 23” security code in Hong Kong, which curtails the city’s autonomy, demonstrates Xi’s reluctance to tolerate any displays of independence from Hong Kong, even at the cost of its unique economic status.
Xi’s opponents within the CCP, including factions like the Jiang Zemin group, are discreetly challenging his authority, highlighting concerns about his control over the People’s Liberation Army and the reliability of PLA technology.
While Xi and his adversaries engage in a delicate dance of power, the potential for a distraction like a conflict with Taiwan looms, presenting risks for both China and the CCP.
Xi and President Biden may both be focused on short-term survival, but the CCP’s long-term goal is to maintain power amid socio-economic challenges.
In the face of uncertainty, a military conflict with Taiwan could have dire consequences for China and the CCP.
There are numerous reasons why conflict is not a rational choice for Beijing, as many factors work against China in this regard. This highlights the irrationality of the current situation. Despite this, the main opposition factions within the CCP, including the influential “elders,” have not yet taken action against Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping appears to be moving China towards a fully Maoist state, reducing reliance on external economic factors and the private sector. However, this strategy is unsustainable due to factors such as urban population growth, declining food production, and environmental degradation.
Xi must ensure he faces minimal internal opposition, similar to Josef Stalin’s control in the USSR. Currently, Xi holds significant power over China’s coercive forces. Can his opponents challenge him without access to these levers of power?
The potential collapse of the economy and unrest among the urban population could lead to chaos on a scale not seen since the Cultural Revolution. It is challenging for outside observers to predict China’s future, but it is crucial to understand when Xi may take drastic actions and what options his opponents and the population have.
Despite some weakening, Xi still holds the upper hand in domestic power dynamics, at least for now. It is likely that he will strengthen his position, or his opponents will need to act in 2024 to prevent long-term losses.
Please note that the opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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