As the election approaches with six months to go, it is still early to determine the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Democrat-turned-independent candidate for president. Starting with about 10 percent of the vote and a renowned political name, there is speculation on whether he will be more than just a spoiler in the race. Third-party candidates, even without winning the presidency, have historically played a significant and positive role in American politics.
Third-party candidates have the ability to bring new issues to the forefront, represent marginalized groups, and garner substantial support. Throughout history, third-party candidates have either won states or achieved double digits in the national vote, contributing to the political landscape in meaningful ways.
Current polling indicates that conditions for a successful third-party candidacy may be present. With dissatisfaction among voters towards both major parties and a lack of focus on longstanding issues during the campaign season, there is speculation on whether a third-party candidate like Kennedy could gain significant traction, similar to the phenomenon seen in 1992.
To understand the potential of the Kennedy campaign, it is essential to examine similar third-party bids from the past that have either succeeded or fallen short. By categorizing third-party candidacies into groups that Kennedy may align with, we can assess his chances of making a substantial impact in the election.
The movement candidates
Periodically, new issues emerge in American politics that the major parties are ill-equipped to address. These issues may not align neatly with existing political alignments, leading to the rise of third-party candidates who champion these causes. While these movements are often transient, they attract significant support and can influence the political discourse.
Progressive-outsider candidates have become less common with the dominance of the liberal Democratic Party. Recent third-party movements have emerged from the populist right, filling a void left by the traditional party establishments. Kennedy, while not fitting the typical mold, may have opportunities to lead a different kind of third-party movement focused on overlooked issues like spending, debt, and societal crises.
Factional dissenters represent a group of candidates who break away from a major party due to dissatisfaction with its direction. While Kennedy was a Democrat at the start of his campaign, he does not align with a dissenting faction within the party, making him distinct from typical factional dissenters.
Protest candidates draw support from voters dissatisfied with the major-party candidates and politics as usual. Kennedy, with his recognizable name and anti-establishment appeal, may attract protest voters looking for an alternative to the two major parties. However, historically, protest candidates have often been seen as spoilers in elections.
