Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, is making strides towards gathering enough signatures to secure a spot on the ballot in Texas. This development could potentially lead to a three-way competition in the state, which is the second most populous in the country.
Although Mr. Kennedy is not expected to win in the predominantly Republican state, his entry into the presidential race in Texas may have an interesting impact by inadvertently assisting the Democratic challenger vying to unseat Senator Ted Cruz.
The Cruz campaign has been expressing private worries for weeks now, viewing Mr. Kennedy as a significant wildcard in a race that Mr. Cruz had hoped to secure comfortably. Texas has shown a preference for Mr. Trump in the past two elections, with him winning about 52 percent of the state’s vote in 2020.
However, a three-way race in November could disrupt this balance by attracting more voters to the polls who are not fond of either Mr. Trump or President Biden. A significant portion of these voters also seem to hold negative views towards Mr. Cruz, a two-term incumbent with widespread recognition in Texas.
Recent polling data indicates that Mr. Kennedy’s supporters are more inclined towards the Democratic candidate, Representative Colin Allred, over Mr. Cruz in the U.S. Senate race by a significant margin.
Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University involved in the poll for the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, stated, “The Senate race is where Kennedy’s impact is most pronounced. Kennedy will mobilize individuals who would otherwise abstain from voting, and these Kennedy supporters are more likely to favor Allred over Cruz.”
The Kennedy campaign has been diligently collecting signatures over the past few weeks to meet the challenging requirements for ballot access in Texas. The state mandates that independent candidates submit a petition with a minimum of 113,151 signatures from registered voters who did not participate in a presidential primary.
Mr. Kennedy has already exceeded this threshold, although not all signatures have been authenticated by the campaign yet. Stefanie Spear, the press secretary for the Kennedy campaign, revealed, “We have gathered over 200,000 signatures.”
Ms. Spear mentioned that the campaign is in the process of verifying the signatures and obtaining new ones, with a target of submitting over 180,000 signatures to the Texas secretary of state to preempt any possible legal challenges. She refrained from commenting on the Senate race.
The deadline for submitting the signatures is approaching on Monday. Mr. Kennedy was slated to make an appearance at a rally in Austin that evening.
Mr. Kennedy is striving to secure a spot on the ballot in every state, but his success has been limited to a few states, including Michigan. While polls indicate that he would attract voters from both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, his attempts to gain ballot access have faced the most opposition from the Democratic Party, which is worried that his candidacy could jeopardize President Biden’s re-election.
Given the political landscape in Texas, where Mr. Trump is expected to prevail, it is unclear at this point whether a challenge to Mr. Kennedy’s signatures would arise from Republican or Democratic quarters.
In a head-to-head contest, Mr. Cruz has consistently led in all polls conducted so far, although most polls have not factored in the potential impact of Mr. Kennedy.
In the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey, around 45 percent of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters indicated their support for Mr. Allred, a former N.F.L. player from the Dallas area who was elected to Congress in 2018, compared to approximately 30 percent for Mr. Cruz.
A Democrat has not secured a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.
“I’ve never been a supporter of Ted Cruz. I’ve always been critical of Ted Cruz,” stated Michael Havens, a 71-year-old former police officer and retired family therapist who was collecting signatures for Mr. Kennedy in a Houston park last month.
“And yet, I’m also frustrated with the Democrats for the numerous mistakes they’ve made,” he added. “I’m not sure who he will draw more votes from. I just decided that it doesn’t matter to me. I’m here to change the system.”
Matt Angle of the Lone Star Project, which supports Democrats in Texas, mentioned that having Mr. Kennedy in the race would not harm Mr. Allred and could even benefit him. “We have a long way to go,” he cautioned. “But every little bit counts, and this could be a very close race.”
Both Senate candidates are striving to appeal to moderate voters, competing to portray themselves as the more bipartisan choice.
During an interview at his campaign headquarters, Mr. Cruz emphasized his collaborations with Democrats on various legislation concerning Texas, such as international bridge projects over the Rio Grande, interstate highways, and NASA funding. He downplayed his image as a staunch conservative.
“My inspiration has always been Ronald Reagan. I aim to embody a happy warrior,” he stated.
Unlike in 2018, when he narrowly defeated a Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke, Mr. Cruz mentioned that he and his campaign this time around have been cautious to avoid any “complacency” among Republicans that almost cost him his re-election back then.
“Considering how close the race was last time, it’s much easier for people to understand that we have a real battle ahead,” Mr. Cruz remarked.
The Allred campaign, aiming to attract Republicans and women in the major Texas suburbs, has highlighted issues like abortion access that have shown political success in other states controlled by Republicans. The campaign also emphasized Mr. Allred’s involvement in bipartisan legislation related to veteran healthcare and infrastructure.
“What’s unfolding in Texas is truly a tragedy,” Mr. Allred expressed during an appearance on “The Daily Show,” while discussing the impact of Texas’s abortion ban on pregnant women with medical complications. “That doesn’t sound like freedom to me.”
A spokesperson for Mr. Allred declined to comment on how Mr. Kennedy might influence the Senate race.
