President Joe Biden and Florida Democrats are facing a significant challenge in their efforts to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban, which took effect on Wednesday. Florida’s requirement for ballot measures to receive 60% voter support poses a unique obstacle for the pro-abortion rights movement, which has seen success in other states. Despite this, Democrats are determined to rally support from across the political spectrum to reach the necessary threshold for Amendment 4.
The battle in Florida has the potential to be the most closely watched and expensive abortion-rights ballot measure to date. Democrats see this vote as crucial not only for policy reasons but also as a potential political victory in a state that has become increasingly challenging for them. On the other hand, anti-abortion advocates believe that Florida could break the trend and tip in their favor, despite the absence of support from prominent Republican figures like Donald Trump.
Early polling indicates that a significant number of voters have yet to make up their minds on the referendum, giving both sides an opportunity to shape public opinion. Florida Republicans, who have a significant fundraising advantage, are planning to aggressively counter-message to persuade voters to reject the referendum in November. They argue that the proposed amendment is extreme and could lead to broad leeway for health care providers to allow late-term abortions under vague “health” circumstances.
If the referendum passes, abortion would be legal in Florida until viability, typically around 24 weeks into pregnancy. Governor Ron DeSantis has pledged to oppose the referendum, emphasizing concerns about the broad discretion given to health care providers for late-term abortions. Abortion-rights groups will also have to navigate Florida’s increasingly Republican-leaning voter base, which has out-registered Democrats by a significant margin.
As the state grapples with the new six-week abortion ban, both sides are gearing up for a contentious battle leading up to the November election. The outcome of this referendum could have far-reaching implications for abortion rights in Florida and serve as a litmus test for the future of the pro-abortion rights movement in the state. Heartbreaking stories of women in Florida facing the ultimate decision will soon be in the spotlight. A coalition of pro-abortion rights groups, including Planned Parenthood and the ACLU of Florida, called Floridians Protecting Freedom, is leading the charge to pass the referendum. The group formed after Governor DeSantis signed the six-week ban into law, launching the “Yes on 4” campaign led by Lauren Brenzel. Fundraising efforts have gained momentum since a high court ruling, with significant contributions coming from outside the state. The campaign emphasizes the importance of funding Florida’s ballot initiative for abortion access, citing thousands of volunteers and 150,000 Republican voters’ support. Anti-abortion groups are gearing up to challenge the language on Florida’s ballot, while organizations like Students for Life and Florida Voters Against Extremism are mobilizing against the referendum. Despite being outspent, these groups are confident in their ability to defeat the measure with the support of GOP leadership and grassroots efforts. The campaign to get the abortion referendum on the ballot has overcome obstacles and won over critics, including high-profile figures like John Morgan. With those challenges overcome, Morgan still anticipates that the outcome of November’s election will be “very close,” with a 60 percent passage considered a landslide victory. However, the six-week ban may have resonated with voters, he noted.
“The strict law appears to be ready for reversal,” Morgan stated in an email. “People do not appreciate being dictated to… especially when it concerns their own bodies… and particularly by men.”
Kimberly Leonard reported from Miami and Arek Sarkissian reported from Tallahassee, Florida.
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