In Arizona, Democrats are focused on more than just delivering Kamala Harris a key Sun Belt state. They are aggressively campaigning to flip the state Legislature, targeting Phoenix as their top goal in rebuilding state power after years of GOP dominance. With record-breaking fundraising, strong candidate recruitment, and the emergence of abortion as a defining issue, Democrats believe they have a real chance to gain complete statewide control for the first time since the 1960s. The fight is tight, with Democrats needing just one seat in both the House and Senate to tie with Republicans, and two seats to claim majorities.
Their messaging paints Republicans as extreme and responsible for Arizona’s current state, reflecting a national strategy to beat former President Donald Trump and regain power in the states. Success in Arizona could serve as a blueprint for Democrats nationwide. But convincing moderate voters to switch sides in a state where MAGA-ism is entrenched is a challenge. With slim margins, there is no room for error on Election Night.
Despite skepticism about Kamala Harris’ appeal to moderates in Arizona, Democratic volunteers are energized and focused on local issues like border security, public school funding, and the cost of living. By redirecting conversations with voters to these issues, they hope to make inroads in traditionally Republican areas like LD17. The goal is to secure the state legislature by winning over young voters and women in key districts like LD17, where the pathway to Democratic success may lie. I have observed that registered Republicans feel like they are not being properly represented by the current Republican party under Trump’s leadership. The Democratic candidates aiming to unseat the Tucson Republican incumbents align closely with the moderate Democratic values in Arizona. These candidates, McLean and Kevin Volk, are business owners who are tired of divisive political rhetoric and are running for office for the first time. They have been actively campaigning, knocking on thousands of doors in an effort to connect with voters in LD17.
The state senator representing LD17, Sen. Justine Wadsack, is known for her controversial views and affiliation with the Freedom Caucus. She has pushed anti-LBGTQ+ bills and endorsed conspiracy theories, leading to some backlash. Despite this, she was narrowly defeated in the primary by former state Sen. Vince Leach, a Trump supporter who does not align with the moderate wing of the party.
The Democratic party in Arizona faced challenges in capturing the legislature in 2022 due to insufficient candidate representation. Nationally, Democrats left more races uncontested than Republicans, and in Arizona, a significant number of races remained uncontested. The rise of Trump has motivated some Democrats to become more active in politics, with a focus on challenging election deniers and recruiting candidates to fill these gaps.
However, Democrats face the challenge of engaging voters in state legislative races and ensuring they complete their ballots. Down ballot roll-off is a common issue among Democrats, where voters lose interest in local races after casting their votes for high-profile national contests. To address this, Democrats are focusing on building a strong fundraising network and mobilizing support through various groups and initiatives.
Overall, the upcoming elections in Arizona are crucial for both parties, with Democrats aiming to flip chambers and defend their majorities. The policy stakes are high, and Democrats are determined to make meaningful changes in the state’s governance. In the area outside of Phoenix, Democrats are counting on mobilizing college students and working-class voters to secure their seats in the upcoming elections. These constituencies played a pivotal role in Democrats narrowly winning seats in 2022. Seth Blattman, one of the Democratic candidates who unseated conservative state House Republicans in the previous cycle, clinched victory by a margin of just 760 votes.
“We are facing off against extremists in a highly competitive district where the split is 50/50,” Blattman emphasized to a group of volunteers preparing to canvass in Mesa. “This race is crucial. My biggest fear is that while we may gain two seats elsewhere in the state, losing my seat could cost us the majority.”
