This morning, a set of new polls has been released in the battleground states, which includes New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.
The results in the presidential race may have been surprising a year ago, but they are not as surprising now. Donald J. Trump leads in five of the six states among likely voters, with Mr. Biden holding a slight lead among likely voters in Michigan. Mr. Trump’s strength can be attributed to gains among young, Black, and Hispanic voters.
The U.S. Senate results, however, are more surprising. This is the first time Senate races have been included in the polls this year, and the Democratic candidates are leading in all four states tested: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
Not only are Democrats leading, but they are doing so in a traditional manner, with typical levels of support from young and nonwhite voters, even as Mr. Biden faces challenges at the top of the ticket.
Nevada stands out as a key battleground for ticket splitting. Mr. Trump leads the poll by a significant 12 points among registered voters, with a notable nine-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 13-point lead among voters aged 18 to 29.
In the Senate race, the scenario is different. Democratic senator Jacky Rosen leads her Republican challenger by two points among registered voters, including a substantial lead among voters aged 18 to 29 and Hispanics.
Surprisingly, a significant percentage of Mr. Trump’s Hispanic and young supporters are backing Ms. Rosen.
This level of crossover voting has been rare in recent years but was more common before 2020. These results are reminiscent of the 2016 presidential election when there were similar patterns in voter behavior.
With Mr. Trump’s demographic breakthroughs in the polls, it is not unexpected to see a return of ticket splitting.
For more details on the presidential race, you can read the full story here, and for the Senate race, the story is available here.
Some key takeaways:
Implications of ticket splitting for Biden
There has been a debate about Mr. Biden’s performance among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. The down-ballot results suggest that Mr. Trump’s support among these demographics is real, rather than a polling error.
Other indicators, such as party registration and past voting behavior, support the idea that the polls are accurately capturing the shift in voter preferences.
Historically, significant polling errors tend to be consistent across different races, as seen in previous elections.
Despite the challenges, there is a silver lining for Mr. Biden as these voters have not completely abandoned the Democratic party and could still be swayed back to his side.
Analysis of likely voters in Michigan
One of the most intriguing findings in the poll is the significant difference between registered and likely voters in Michigan.
While Mr. Trump leads by seven points among registered voters, Mr. Biden has a one-point lead among likely voters.
This disparity raises questions about the voting behavior of unlikely voters in Michigan and the accuracy of the polling data.
It is worth noting that the previous Times/Siena poll of Michigan also showed a large gap between registered and likely voters, indicating a trend in voter behavior.
In this poll, voters who were less likely to vote supported Mr. Trump by a significant margin.
Additionally, voters without a voting record from the 2020 election favored Mr. Trump by a large margin.
Impact of Arab and Muslim voters
In a previous Times/Siena poll, there were signs of a shift among Muslim and Arab voters away from Mr. Biden, which is consistent with the current poll results.
Mr. Trump leads among Middle Eastern, North African, or Muslim voters, while those who voted in 2020 supported Mr. Biden.
When asked about their primary concerns in the race, Arab and Muslim voters who did not support Mr. Biden cited foreign policy and the conflict in Gaza as significant factors.
