President Biden has almost closed the gap on Donald J. Trump’s early polling lead, with indications that the Democratic base is starting to rally behind the president despite lingering concerns about the country’s direction, the economy, and his age, according to a recent survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
The latest poll shows Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in a virtual tie, with Mr. Trump holding a slight 46 percent to 45 percent advantage. This marks an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February when Mr. Trump had a more substantial 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before becoming the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden’s increase in support seems to come mainly from his stronger position among traditional Democratic voters – he is now winning a larger share of voters who backed him in 2020 compared to a month ago. Previously, Mr. Trump had the support of a significantly higher percentage of his past voters than the president – 97 percent to 83 percent – but that gap has narrowed. Currently, Mr. Biden is garnering 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared to 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
The tightening poll numbers indicate that the 2024 election is expected to be extremely close, with both campaigns gearing up for a fierce battle. Given the narrow margins in the last two presidential elections, even the slightest shift in support could make a significant difference.
Despite the narrowing race, many fundamental aspects of the campaign remain unchanged.
A majority of voters, 64 percent, still believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Nearly 80 percent rate the nation’s economic conditions as fair or poor, including a majority of Democrats. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump continue to have low approval ratings for familiar reasons, with most voters considering Mr. Biden too old and a majority believing Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes.
“Just blah,” said Beth Prevost, a 59-year-old independent voter from Windsor Locks, Conn., capturing the sentiment of many about the rematch. She mentioned leaning towards Mr. Biden as “the lesser of two evils.”
“You can recover from bad policies, but you can’t recover from a bad heart,” Ms. Prevost added. “And Donald Trump has a bad heart.”
The survey comes just ahead of Mr. Trump’s historic criminal trial in New York City, the first for a former U.S. president. He is facing charges related to falsifying records concerning a hush-money payment to a porn star. While he is involved in four felony indictments, this is the only case set for trial before the election.
Despite the potential legal troubles facing the Republican nominee, only a quarter of voters say they are closely following the former president’s legal issues.
The Biden campaign, already active in advertising in battleground states, is banking on the idea that the prospect of a second Trump term will push hesitant Democrats back to their usual party allegiance. Initial signs indicate this may be happening.
In the past month, Mr. Biden’s support among white voters has remained steady, but has slightly increased among Black and Latino voters, although still below traditional levels of Democratic support. His standing has improved among suburban and female voters, while weaker among men. Younger voters remain a challenge, while older voters provide a relative source of strength for the Democratic president.
The poll’s overall margin of error was 3.3 percent. However, the results among subgroups are less statistically reliable due to smaller sample sizes. Nevertheless, this poll showed Mr. Biden with his strongest performance among nonwhite voters in the last three Times/Siena surveys since December.
Age remains a significant concern for Mr. Biden politically.
A majority of voters, 69 percent, still view the 81-year-old Democrat as too old to be an effective president. Mr. Trump, who will turn 78 in June, would also be the oldest president if elected, but fewer voters doubt his ability to serve, with only 41 percent considering him too old.
There was a notable shift in the last month among voters over 65, with a significantly lower percentage now seeing Mr. Biden as too old.
Russell Wood, a 67-year-old Democratic retiree and veteran from Los Angeles County, noted a noticeable change in Mr. Biden’s energy levels. While disappointed by Mr. Biden skipping the traditional pre-Super Bowl interview, he was pleased with the president’s performance since then.
“He did a really great job at the State of the Union, and since then it’s like he’s been a different Joe Biden,” Mr. Wood said, adding: “I know he’s on the campaign trail day in and day out. I have no complaints there.”
The economy remains a challenge for the president, who has been promoting his job agenda under the banner of “Bidenomics.” Young voters, in particular, are critical, with over 85 percent rating the economy as poor or fair.
Voters in the poll gave contrasting ratings to Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy: 64 percent approved of Mr. Trump’s performance as president, while 63 percent disapproved of Mr. Biden’s current job on the issue.
Immigration was another area where Mr. Trump held a significant advantage in the eyes of voters. With border crossings hitting record highs at the end of last year, a slim majority approved of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration as president, while 64 percent disapproved of Mr. Biden’s performance in that area.
Luis Campino, a 50-year-old independent voter from Highland, N.Y., originally from Colombia, expressed concerns about the influx of people crossing the border. “They’re coming in like nothing,” he remarked.
Mr. Campino, who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, is now considering voting for Mr. Trump as the “lesser of two evils,” citing worries about crime and immigration as driving factors.
In the poll, Mr. Biden received higher ratings than Mr. Trump for his ability to unite the nation and his handling of race relations and the pandemic.
However, when it comes to foreign conflicts, with the war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in Gaza, voters gave Mr. Trump considerably better marks for his handling of such situations.
Only 36 percent approve of Mr. Biden’s management of foreign conflicts, with younger voters especially critical. Only 4 percent of voters under 45 strongly approve of his performance on those international issues.
Danny Ghoghas, a 23-year-old Democrat from Burbank, Calif., is contemplating abstaining from voting on Election Day to protest Mr. Biden’s response to the Gaza conflict.
“I really don’t like Donald Trump and wouldn’t want him back in office,” said Mr. Ghoghas. “That’s why I would vote for Biden again. But other than that, I can’t find a good reason to support him.”
There were noticeable generational differences in views on foreign affairs. While voters of all ages had similar opinions of Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden received significantly lower ratings from voters under 45, with 70 percent disapproving. Among those 45 and older, a slim majority of 53 percent disapproved.
Mr. Biden has highlighted Mr. Trump’s potential threat to democratic rule following the January 6th riot as a central theme in his re-election campaign. However, so far, equal segments of respondents – 31 percent each – view both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump as “good for democracy.” The number of people who consider Mr. Trump “bad for democracy,” at 45 percent, slightly outweighs those who say the same about Mr. Biden.
Additionally, an equal number of voters labeled both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden as a “risky choice” for the country.
The poll did not inquire about potential third-party candidates. However, around 5 percent of voters, seemingly dissatisfied with the Trump-Biden options, mentioned other candidates they intended to vote for, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Democrat-turned-independent seeking to get on ballots nationwide.
It remains unclear how Mr. Trump’s impending criminal trial will impact his standing, as 37 percent of respondents indicated little to no attention to his legal issues.
Nevertheless, a majority of voters, 58 percent, consider the charges of falsifying business records to cover up payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels as either very serious or somewhat serious. Predictably, opinions on this matter were divided along partisan lines, although a majority of independents viewed the charges as at least somewhat serious.
Of particular interest was the gender gap in perceptions of these charges.
Women were twice as likely as men, 40 percent to 20 percent, to view the charges related to the porn star as very serious; conversely, men were twice as likely as women to see the charges as not serious at all, 30 percent to 15 percent.
Ruth Igielnik, Alyce McFadden and Camille Baker contributed reporting.
Here are the key things to know about how this Times/Siena poll was conducted:
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We spoke with 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024.
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Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
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Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 127,000 calls to more than 93,000 voters.
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To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
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The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
