President Biden’s path to victory heavily relies on strong support from women, but his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, impacting the closeness of the race.
Recent polls show that Mr. Biden’s lead among women has decreased to about eight percentage points compared to the 2020 election, while former President Trump’s support among men has rebounded to the double-digit lead he had in 2016.
Although Republicans typically lead among men in presidential elections, Democrats have historically led among women by a larger margin in winning years.
Mr. Biden’s decline in support is especially notable among Black and Hispanic women, according to recent polls by KFF. While issues like abortion and democracy are important to some women, concerns about inflation seem to be more influential in the current race, favoring Mr. Trump.
In states where abortion is a key issue, the polls suggest that it could motivate women to vote, supporting the Democratic theory that it will drive female voter turnout.
Despite challenges, Mr. Biden’s support among women remains more stable than his support among men, which has declined further, particularly among young men and those without a college degree. Democratic strategists believe that traditional Democratic groups, including women and Black voters, will realign with Mr. Biden as the campaign progresses.
However, Mr. Biden’s struggles with Black and Hispanic women are significant. While he still leads among Black women, the margin has decreased from the previous election. His lead with Hispanic women has also shrunk, indicating a tighter race among women overall.
The polls suggest that abortion-focused voters, who tend to be younger and white, support Mr. Biden on this issue and want to see him re-elected. But the larger group of women concerned about inflation may play a decisive role in the election.
Inflation voters, who are often Black or Hispanic and middle-aged, prioritize economic issues like inflation in their vote. A majority of Black women in Michigan and Hispanic women in Arizona consider inflation the most important issue affecting their vote, overshadowing other concerns.
Overall, more women believe they were financially better off under Mr. Trump, with young women expressing a stronger preference for Trump’s economic policies. This shift in female voter preferences highlights the evolving dynamics of women’s voting behavior in recent years.
The trend of Democratic success with women is a relatively modern phenomenon, with Democrats typically holding a double-digit lead among women in recent years. The current narrowing margin among women for Mr. Biden reflects a shift in female voter preferences compared to previous elections.
