The decline in Mr. Biden’s perceived odds of winning the nomination was not limited to the political class. Within hours on PredictIt.org, a betting site for political events, his chances dropped significantly. Bettors now believed there was only a 60 percent chance of him being nominated, despite his primary victories and lack of internal opposition. This sudden shift in sentiment raised concerns among Democrats.
With no incumbent president ever dropping out of the race so late in the campaign cycle, Democrats were left speculating about the potential outcomes. Some envisioned party elders like Senator Chuck Schumer, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, or Representative James E. Clyburn intervening on Mr. Biden’s behalf, but there was no indication that they would actually do so.
Many Democrats feared it was too late to make any significant changes, as Mr. Biden appeared determined to continue his campaign despite mounting challenges. The absence of a clear successor also added to the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
While incumbent presidents often stumble in their first debate, Mr. Biden’s current predicament is more severe. With no scheduled debates until September 10, he faces a prolonged period without a chance to recover from his recent setbacks. The seriousness of the situation was compared to an existential crisis by a veteran Democratic strategist.
Instead of a campaign reset in Mr. Biden’s favor, the president’s team now faces the daunting task of mitigating the damage and rallying support for their embattled leader in the coming days and weeks.
Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Katie Rogers and Annie Karni contributed reporting.
