CCP’s Perceived ‘Window of Opportunity’ to Seize Taiwan Never Materialized

Taking control of Taiwan was a promise that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping made to senior Party members in exchange for extending his time in power beyond two terms. However, achieving this goal seems increasingly unlikely.

In order to amend the Chinese Constitution and abolish the term limit in 2018, Xi Jinping reportedly suggested a plan to annex Taiwan within the next 10 years, using this period to consolidate his leadership. This ambitious plan would require Xi to serve a third and possibly a fourth term, a feat even Mao Zedong, the founder of communist China, could not accomplish.

As the year 2027 approaches, the landscape is complicated by the potential second term of Donald Trump.

Former Peking University law professor Yuan Hongbing revealed that two months before the U.S. presidential election, a special think tank commissioned by Xi Jinping’s six-member Chinese Military Commission predicted a Trump victory and anticipated his focus on resolving conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region.

Based on this assessment, the think tank advised Xi Jinping that there was a limited “window of opportunity” to invade Taiwan before 2027 and advised the CCP to prepare for a significant conflict with the United States in the Taiwan Strait.

However, developments so far have not aligned with this strategy.

The transition of power in the U.S. has been peaceful, and the Federal Reserve has managed inflation effectively. Trump has already been proactive in foreign policy, mediating cease-fires in the Middle East and demanding the return of hostages taken in the region.

Xi Jinping’s envisioned “window of opportunity” is rapidly closing, and he faces challenges in maintaining it without altering his approach to Taiwan.

Unlike previous communist leaders, Xi Jinping’s authority beyond two terms is intricately linked to his promise of seizing Taiwan. Changing course now could undermine his credibility and jeopardize his hold on power.

Furthermore, Xi Jinping is facing internal power struggles following the dismissal of several high-ranking military officials, indicating a lack of absolute control over the Chinese military.

While Xi Jinping has outlined his “red lines” to President Joe Biden regarding Taiwan, this rigid stance may expose vulnerabilities and limit the CCP’s flexibility in executing its plans.

Ultimately, time is not on Xi Jinping’s side as the constraints of his strategy and the external geopolitical landscape pose significant challenges to his goal of taking over Taiwan.