It appears that America’s biggest adversaries are in favor of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.
Vladimir Putin has long been known to prefer Trump, as evidenced by historical events. Additionally, China’s government is now actively supporting Trump’s presidential campaign.
According to a report by my colleagues Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers:
Covert Chinese accounts are posing as American supporters of former President Donald J. Trump online, spreading conspiracy theories, fueling internal divisions, and criticizing President Biden in preparation for the upcoming election in November, as per researchers and government officials.
These accounts suggest a potential shift in China’s strategy to influence American politics, showing a willingness to target specific candidates and parties, including Mr. Biden. Some of these Chinese accounts pretend to be ardent Trump supporters, with one account claiming to be a MAGA supporter who ridiculed Mr. Biden and promoted Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.
While this effort is currently limited in scope, it is uncertain whether it will expand or if Beijing-linked accounts will eventually balance their approach with anti-Trump content. Nonetheless, parts of the Chinese government seem to have taken a side in the 2024 election. In this newsletter, I will delve into what China and Russia stand to gain from a potential second term for Trump.
Areas of Influence
Putin’s preference for Trump is clear, especially given Biden’s leadership in an international coalition against Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trump has hinted at ending U.S. support for Ukraine, a move that aligns with Putin’s objectives.
China’s preference for Trump is less straightforward. Despite Trump’s confrontational approach towards China, recent reports indicate that Beijing is dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump.
However, there are at least two significant ways in which China could benefit from a second term for Trump.
The first pertains to America’s involvement in global affairs. Biden views the world as engaged in a battle between autocracy and democracy, with the U.S. playing a crucial role as the leading democracy. On the contrary, Putin and Xi believe in the autonomy of strong nations to control their regions. Trump’s isolationist stance and “America First” policy align more closely with this viewpoint.
Under Trump, the U.S. has shown reluctance to engage in international conflicts, treaties, and alliances, potentially allowing China to expand its influence and challenge America’s superpower status.
For Moscow and Beijing, having an American president who shares these beliefs presents numerous advantages.
Potential Disruption
Another significant benefit of a potential second term for Trump is the internal chaos it could generate in the U.S.
Trump’s unconventional governance style, characterized by sudden changes in position and organizational disarray, could exacerbate under a new term. His rhetoric of investigating and incarcerating political opponents, inciting violence among supporters, and polarizing Democrats on key issues could further divide the nation.
A politically turbulent U.S. could create opportunities for other countries to assert greater global influence.
While Trump’s supporters believe in his ability to safeguard the national interest, it is noteworthy that the U.S.’s major global rivals perceive a Trump victory as advantageous to their own interests.
It is evident that the most powerful adversaries of the U.S. view a Trump win in the 2024 election as favorable to their goals.
More on Trump
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