The Manhattan district attorney’s office is set to make its recommendation to a judge on whether to imprison Donald J. Trump for his recent felony conviction. This marks a significant moment in the first criminal sentencing of an American president.
The sentencing is expected to be the only instance of criminal accountability for the former president before Election Day, where he is aiming to secure another term in the White House. Trump could potentially face up to four years in prison in the Manhattan case, but there is also a possibility of probation. The conviction in May involved 34 counts of falsifying business records, which were linked to a cover-up of a sex scandal leading up to the 2016 election.
Trump’s other criminal cases are facing delays, with the Supreme Court granting him immunity for official acts, likely prolonging the trial in Washington where he is accused of election interference in 2020.
In the Manhattan case, district attorney Alvin L. Bragg will present his recommendation to the overseeing judge, Juan M. Merchan. However, it remains uncertain if these legal documents will be made public. Unlike federal court, sentencing papers in New York State courts are typically confidential unless authorized by the judge. Therefore, the world may not be aware of Bragg’s recommendation until Trump’s sentencing on July 11, just before his anticipated nomination for president at the Republican National Convention.
The judge is faced with a unique dilemma that carries significant legal and political implications. Whatever decision is made is bound to polarize the nation.
The potential imprisonment of Trump could further divide the country politically. On the other hand, if Justice Merchan opts for leniency, it may give the impression of preferential treatment. Trump’s status as a front-runner in the 2024 presidential race adds complexity to the judge’s decision, as it could impact the election’s outcome.
Justice Merchan, a former prosecutor who has clashed with Trump and his legal team in the past, has various options at his disposal. The former president could face jail time or be sentenced to probation or home confinement. The judge could also delay the sentencing until after the election or even after a potential second term for Trump. A sitting president cannot be compelled to serve a prison sentence.
Following Bragg’s recommendation, Trump’s lawyers will have the opportunity to respond with their own recommendation. The judge could also consider input from the New York City probation department, which had a confidential meeting with Trump to make its own sentencing recommendation.
Several factors may work in Trump’s favor, including being a first-time felon convicted of a nonviolent crime. However, his lack of remorse and repeated violations of the gag order during the trial could jeopardize his freedom. The jury convicted him of falsifying records related to a hush-money deal with Stormy Daniels in the final days of the 2016 campaign.
While this case may be the least significant among Trump’s legal troubles, it is likely the only one he will face before the upcoming election. Recent legal developments, including the Supreme Court ruling and the lifting of the gag order, have favored Trump. Once the sentencing is complete, Trump will have free rein to criticize prosecutors and witnesses.
The day after sentencing, district attorney Bragg is expected to testify before Congress, where Trump’s allies are likely to denounce the case as politically motivated.
