Commentary
During a recent debate about the effectiveness of building a new tunnel to alleviate traffic congestion in Hong Kong, the topic of induced demand was brought up. Opponents argued that increasing supply would only lead to more demand, ultimately worsening the congestion issue. This concept, known as the Fundamental Law of Road Congestion, suggests that building more infrastructure can actually make traffic problems worse.
While both sides of the argument have merit, it ultimately comes down to empirical evidence. Studies in the EU and Japan support the idea of induced demand, while research in the U.S. and Netherlands contradicts it. To evaluate this in the context of Hong Kong, we looked at the impact of previous tunnel construction projects.
Before the introduction of the Cross Harbour Tunnel in 1972, traffic in Hong Kong relied on ferries for transportation. Subsequent tunnel projects, such as the Eastern Harbour Tunnel in 1989 and the Western Harbour Tunnel in 1997, aimed to alleviate congestion. However, the data from these projects suggests mixed results.
By examining traffic patterns before and after the introduction of new tunnels, we can see fluctuations in total traffic volume. While induced demand seemed to play a role initially, the impact lessened over time. Economic factors also appear to influence traffic patterns, with GDP growth correlating with changes in traffic volume.
Despite the complexities of traffic management, having multiple tunnels can help distribute traffic more evenly. In the case of Hong Kong, the presence of multiple tunnels has helped ease congestion in certain areas. However, the overall number of vehicles on the road continues to increase, suggesting that additional infrastructure may be necessary in the future.
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