Despite breaking first-day records in multiple states, early voting trends seem to be following patterns similar to those seen in recent election cycles.
In the 2020 election, nearly 70 percent of the 154.6 million Americans who voted utilized “non-traditional means,” with 43 percent opting for mail-in voting and 26 percent casting their ballots in-person before Election Day in the 47 states offering early voting,
according to the United States Census Bureau.
Overall, about 67 percent of eligible Americans participated in the 2020 election, marking a record turnout that saw a 73 percent increase in “non-traditional voting methods” compared to 2016, with many states discouraging in-person voting on Election Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even in the post-pandemic 2022 midterms, nearly 57 percent of the 112 million Americans who voted—a 46 percent turnout—chose to vote by mail (36 percent) or through early voting (21 percent), as per a July 2023 analysis by the Pew Research Center
source.As of October 24, with 12 days left until the November 5, 2024, election, it seems that mail-in voting is unlikely to reach the same levels as in 2020, and early voting trends are resembling those of previous election cycles. However, the total number of voters utilizing “non-traditional voting methods” is expected to surpass the
57.2 million who did so in 2016, as reported by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, when 40 percent of the 139 million votes were cast via mail or early voting.
By October 25, 2020, the number of “non-traditional voters” in 2016 had already been exceeded, with nearly 60 million Americans voting early in-person or by mail ahead of the November 3 Election Day, according to an analysis by the University of Florida’s Election Lab
source.As of 10 p.m. on October 24, 2024,
over 31 million ballots—slightly more than half of the total at the same point in the pandemic-affected 2020 election—had been cast via mail or in-person in the 36 states where early voting was underway, according to the Election Lab’s data.
Twenty states, including battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, do not track voters by party affiliation, making direct comparisons between early voting and mail-in ballots in 2000 and 2024 challenging.
The number of states included in the Election Lab data sets for 2020 and 2024, which only encompass states with voter party affiliation records, also differ.
However, some trends are noticeable.
Comparing the Election Lab’s 2020 figures nine days before the November 3 election and its 2024 data 12 days before the November 5 election, there seems to be a significant decrease in the number of requested and returned mail-in ballots, even in the
eight states where ballots are automatically sent to voters.
Out of the 52.6 million mail-in ballots requested in 2020 from 18 states with voter party affiliation records as included in the Election Lab’s
October 25 survey, slightly over 21 million had been returned. At that time in 2020, Democrats held a significant lead over Republicans in these 18 states, with 11 million to 5.1 million returned ballots.
In 2024, out of 47 million mail-in ballots requested from 25 states with voter party affiliation records included in the Election Lab’s
October 24 survey, nearly 11 million had been returned. Democrats were ahead of Republicans by 5 million to 3.6 million, with almost 2.4 million returned by non-partisan voters by late evening on October 24.
By October 25, 2020, in the Election Lab survey of 10 states, 5.8 million Americans had cast early ballots, with Republicans leading Democrats by 2.3 million to 2.2 million at that point.
In the 2024 Election Lab
survey of early in-person voting across 25 states with voter party affiliation records, 4.4 million had voted. GOP voters were ahead of Democrats by 1.8 million to 1.4 million, with over 1.2 million nonpartisan voters casting their ballots by late evening on October 24.
While there are variations due to different state inclusions in 2020 and 2024, it appears that mail-in voting will not be as prevalent this year as it was four years ago.
This aligns with a
survey conducted by the Pew Research Center from September 30 to October 6, interviewing 4,025 registered voters. The survey revealed that 52 percent of respondents plan to vote using “non-traditional voting methods,” with 28 percent opting for mail-in voting, 24 percent choosing early in-person voting, and 38 percent planning to vote on Election Day.
