experts caution that while there are tempting targets within reach, launching deep strikes into Russian territory from Kyiv is unlikely to change the military balance. Kyiv’s allies, particularly the United States and Britain, have shown openness to the idea of allowing Ukraine to use long-range missile systems supplied by the West to strike deep into Russia. However, experts believe that given the current situation on the battlefield, such actions may not shift the conflict in Ukraine’s favor.
Robert Peters, a defense policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, emphasized that Russian forces are steadily advancing in the east, making it crucial for Ukrainian forces to halt and push back these advances before considering deep strikes. Despite the potential of Western long-range missile systems like the ATACMS and Storm Shadow to hit high-value military targets in Russia, experts like Peters suggest that targeting Russia’s offensive weapon production facilities would be more impactful.
While Ukraine possesses these missile systems and has used them against Russian positions in Crimea and Ukraine, they have refrained from using them within Russian territory. The US has limited Ukraine to conducting cross-border strikes with American-supplied weapons to prevent escalation. Kyiv’s allies have adopted a cautious approach, testing Moscow’s reactions without crossing boundaries. However, the prospect of deep strikes into Russia raises concerns about potential risks and the escalation of the conflict, including the threat of nuclear retaliation. Putin has warned that such actions would be considered an act of war, further complicating the situation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart David Lammy have both indicated a willingness to support Kyiv in their efforts. “We have adjusted and adapted as the battlefield has changed,” Blinken stated during a recent visit to Kyiv. He expressed confidence that this adaptability will continue. Some observers, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have suggested that Ukraine’s military may require assistance from Western allies to effectively use advanced long-range missile systems. When asked about this claim, Peters mentioned that there is speculation that Ukraine is already receiving targeting assistance. The Pentagon had not responded to inquiries on the matter at the time of publication.
There have been concerns raised about the effectiveness of these long-range missile systems against Russia’s air defenses, particularly the S-300 and S-400 systems. However, Peters emphasized that Ukrainian forces have been able to penetrate these defenses regularly. He also noted that long-range fires, especially those with a ballistic trajectory, have been successful against Russian missile defenses. If Kyiv is granted permission to conduct deep strikes, Peters believes that many of these strikes will reach their intended targets.
Despite the readiness of some officials to support Ukraine, there are reservations within certain quarters of the US government. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed doubts about the decisive impact of specific capabilities. He highlighted the limited ability of Ukraine’s current arsenal to address targets beyond certain ranges. Pentagon spokesman Charlie Dietz also pointed out that the highest-value Russian targets may be out of reach of Ukraine’s existing missile systems. Given the finite nature of these missile stocks and their high cost, Dietz stressed the importance of strategic deployment.
Peters explained that Western allies, including the US, are facing dwindling inventories of long-range missiles and systems. There is a need to conserve these resources for potential conflicts with other adversaries, such as China. The concern is that depleting these resources in Ukraine could leave the West vulnerable in other strategic areas. This hesitation is also influenced by the rapid expenditure of munitions since 2022, creating challenges in replenishing stocks. The overarching goal is to maintain a strategic balance in the face of evolving global threats.
The article includes images of Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering a speech and US soldiers standing next to a Patriot missile system, highlighting the military context of the discussion. The analysis underscores the complex considerations involved in supporting Ukraine while safeguarding broader strategic interests. Can you please rewrite this sentence?
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