The former candidate, Nikki Haley, continues to receive double-digit percentages in primaries, indicating a bloc of “never Trump” voters within the Republican Party. However, experts caution against drawing conclusions for the general election based on these results. While Haley’s ongoing support may impact the election, the dynamics of the 2024 race and the differences between primary and general elections make it difficult to predict voter behavior in November. The open primary system in Indiana and the possibility of crossover voting further complicate the situation. Despite resistance to President Trump within his own party, some believe that reluctant Republicans and Independents may still support him in the fall. President Biden also faces challenges with a voter revolt of his own despite securing his party’s nomination.
Ninety percent is often seen as a crucial threshold for incumbent presidents during primary elections.
Those protesting against the war in Gaza have emerged as prominent dissenters against Biden’s policies.
One New York City resident, Jesse Pape, expressed his reluctance to vote for both Trump and Biden due to concerns over Biden’s actions in Gaza, opting instead to support a third-party candidate like Dr. Cornell West or the Socialist Party nominee.
Brooklyn resident Travis Essof believes that it is Biden who has turned his back on the people, leading him to consider writing in the name of Shirley Chisholm, a trailblazing figure in American politics.
Election Unknowns
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could potentially shake up the election for both major parties, having secured a spot on Michigan’s presidential ballot as the Natural Law Party nominee.
With President Biden’s narrow victory in Michigan in 2020, Kennedy’s presence in the race could have significant implications, even if he does not emerge as the winner.
The level of voter turnout remains uncertain.
While U.S. voter turnout is among the highest globally, there is variability in participation rates, with only 62.8 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots in the last election cycle, ranking the U.S. 31st out of 49 countries with national elections around the same time.
The ultimate voting behavior of anti-Trump voters in November is unpredictable, with the key question being how many of them will actually turn out to vote.
—Juliette Fairley contributed to this article—
