President-elect Donald Trump, known for his ‘peace through strength’ stance, is facing a volatile Middle East marked by recent conflicts. As he prepares to take office, Trump must navigate multiple armed conflicts in the region, including ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, clashes between Israel and Iran, and the persistent Israel-Hamas war. The approach Trump’s incoming team will take to address these challenges remains uncertain.
Trump’s 2024 campaign website highlights his first-term Middle East policies, such as recognizing Israel’s territorial claims and brokering peace agreements through the Abraham Accords. However, the Trump team has criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, warning of emboldened rogue regimes and terrorist groups.
While Trump’s team has emphasized restoring peace through strength, they have not provided detailed plans for his Middle East policy upon his return to office. Analysts suggest that Trump’s approach to the region is transactional, focusing on key principles like supporting Israel, containing Iran, and avoiding broader regional conflicts.
One of the most pressing challenges facing the incoming Trump administration is the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. The conflict, which began with Hamas attacks in 2023, has led to significant casualties on both sides. Efforts to secure a lasting cease-fire have been complicated by Hamas holding hostages and ongoing military operations.
Trump has expressed support for Israel’s military actions in Gaza but has also cautioned against the release of certain footage that could fuel negative public opinion. He has emphasized the need for a swift end to the conflict and urged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to prioritize achieving victory and ending the bloodshed.
In his first term, Trump facilitated diplomatic relations between Israel and several Muslim nations through the Abraham Accords, a significant achievement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As he prepares to return to office, how Trump will address the complex and volatile situation in the Middle East remains to be seen. The Abraham Accords were a series of U.S.-mediated bilateral agreements that saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with the Arabian Gulf monarchies of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as with the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Sudan in North Africa. According to James Robbins, the Dean of Academics at the Institute for World Politics in Washington D.C., the groundbreaking aspect of these accords was the Israeli reconciliation with the broader Muslim world, independent of the issue of Palestinian statehood.
Efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have stalled since the Gaza war began, with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud stating that Israeli-Saudi normalization is on hold until there is a resolution to Palestinian statehood. Despite this setback, Robbins remains hopeful that the incoming Trump administration will be able to revive the Abraham Accords without a specific deal regarding Palestinian statehood.
While Palestinian statehood may not be a prerequisite for further Israeli-Muslim reconciliation, any moves by Israel to expand control in the West Bank could face opposition across the Middle East. The issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank has long been a point of contention in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with opponents arguing that these settlements encroach on Palestinian territory and hinder efforts for a two-state solution.
As for Iran, there are concerns about preventing the country from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump had previously withdrawn the U.S. from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and implemented sanctions against Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” strategy. Both Robbins and Miller predict that Trump will resume this strategy in his second term.
If Iran were to test a nuclear weapon, there are questions about whether they could acquire enough weapons to deter Israel before Israel could respond. The international community remains vigilant about Iran’s nuclear activities, with reports indicating that Iran has accumulated significantly more uranium than allowed under the JCPOA.
Overall, the Middle East remains a complex region with ongoing challenges and potential opportunities for peace and stability. Robbins stated that he hopes the United States, under a Trump administration, would not agree to a deal to replace the JCPOA. On the other hand, Miller believes that Trump might attempt to negotiate a new agreement to replace the JCPOA in order to reduce the threat of regional war and prevent a potential nuclear-armed Iran.
When it comes to Syria and Iraq, Trump will have the chance to reduce U.S. forces in the region. While U.S. troops were deployed to Syria in 2015 to combat ISIS, Trump has expressed a desire to withdraw completely from Syria in the past. Miller predicts that this time, Trump will be more determined to follow through with the withdrawal, as the arguments against it have been exhausted.
Regarding ISIS, Miller acknowledges that the threat has decreased significantly in recent years. However, he believes that Trump will carefully consider his options in Iraq and Syria to avoid a situation similar to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
The future of U.S. involvement in the region remains uncertain, but it is clear that Trump’s decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome. Please rewrite this sentence.
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