Photo: Matan Golan/Sipa USA via AP
The exceptional intelligence and operational precision exhibited by the Israeli security apparatus in Beirut and possibly Tehran has led to questions about why Israel, despite its capabilities, struggles to defeat Hamas or rescue hostages.
Many Israelis recognize the importance of bringing back the hostages alive, viewing it as a moral obligation that must be fulfilled for any victory to be achieved. The security establishment also sees the release of hostages through a ceasefire as a strategic national interest, restoring public trust in the military and deescalating tensions. However, despite growing support for this approach, Israelis have not been able to influence the government to change course.
Several factors contribute to this inability for change, including Israel’s history of defying international opinion and law in occupied territories, leading to a culture of lawlessness. The dominance of right-wing ideologies and the military’s sacrosanct status in Israeli society also hinder political change. The belief that compromise and diplomacy make Israel appear weak has further entrenched a reliance on military force as the only solution.
While Israel has achieved regional superpower status through decisive military victories in the past, its current conflicts with nonstate armed groups require a different approach. The continued use of force to maintain deterrence is no longer effective, leading to calls for a more decisive military action. However, it is clear that Israel cannot solely rely on military power to overcome its challenges and must also engage in diplomacy and negotiations to create a secure future. Even as Israel has devastated Gaza and taken out key Hamas and Hezbollah figures, they are not any closer to achieving victory in either conflict. Instead, they now face the looming threat of a potential regional war.
At this critical juncture, Israel finds itself in one of its most vulnerable national security positions since its establishment. Confidence in political and military leadership is at an all-time low among the public. The pressing question is whether Israelis will begin to challenge the longstanding security assumptions that have guided their policies for decades. Should they fail to do so, they can only hope that other major players, such as the U.S. and Iran, will see the value in preventing a descent into chaos.
Recent developments suggest that Iran may be willing to show restraint in response to international pressure, with indications that a ceasefire in Gaza could delay or even prevent retaliation. Even a former IDF chief of staff, Moshe Ya’alon, has expressed doubts about an escalation from Iran and Hezbollah, but less certainty about Israeli leadership. For ordinary Israelis, placing blind faith in the military’s promises to “finish the job” offers little solace, only the prospect of more uncertainty and turmoil.
In this volatile climate, it is crucial for all parties involved to exercise restraint and seek diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation. Only through careful negotiation and a commitment to peace can the region hope to avoid the devastating consequences of all-out war.
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