Researchers are analyzing his interviews, preparing for potential mass deportations, and developing policy proposals to present during negotiations.
With Mexico’s presidential election approaching, government officials and campaign staff are bracing for another election in the United States that could result in Donald Trump returning to power.
During Trump’s previous term, his unexpected victory caught many international allies off guard, leading to rapid adjustments to his aggressive diplomatic approach. Now, there is time to forecast the impact of a potential Trump comeback on the relationships that President Biden has worked to stabilize, prompting intense preparations for potential changes.
The memories of negotiating with Trump during his previous presidency, marked by severe threats against Mexico, are still fresh for some.
Former Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard reflected on the challenges of dealing with Trump’s team in the past. “Time, patience, cold blood,” Ebrard emphasized in an interview. “Understanding this is key to success. It’s no easy task.”
Mexican officials anticipate even tougher negotiations with Trump if he returns to office. Trump has made bold promises of massive deportations, proposed steep tariffs on Chinese cars manufactured in Mexico, and threatened to deploy U.S. Special Forces to combat drug cartels.
Behind the scenes, the Mexican government is engaging with Trump campaign associates to address issues like universal tariffs on imports and resolve trade disputes before the U.S. election, according to a senior Mexican official.
The objective, according to the official, is to equip the future Mexican administration as effectively as possible for potential negotiations with Trump.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico established a close working relationship with Trump despite the latter’s threats of tariffs and border wall expenses. However, López Obrador is set to step down after the upcoming elections, with his protégé Claudia Sheinbaum leading in polls.
The unspoken understanding in López Obrador’s dealings with Trump was Mexico’s cooperation on migration in exchange for minimal interference in domestic affairs. This arrangement seemed mutually beneficial.
López Obrador has commended Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty, while Trump has lauded the Mexican leader as a friend and a great president. The nature of Trump’s interaction with the top presidential candidates remains uncertain.
Both candidates express readiness to collaborate with either Trump or Biden, emphasizing the importance of defending Mexican interests in the U.S. and striving for equitable relations.
Campaign teams are formulating strategies for potential outcomes, with preparations in place for various scenarios. The focus is on being prepared for any eventuality.
Regarding migration, there is a push for more effective measures to reduce irregular border crossings, acknowledging the role of American laws as an incentive for migration.
Some Mexican officials believe the country now holds greater leverage in its dealings with the U.S., citing Mexico’s crucial role in addressing migration issues at the U.S. southern border.
Mexico’s negotiations with the Trump administration yielded mixed results, with criticism over concessions made under the “Remain in Mexico” policy. However, there were successes such as the renegotiation of the free trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada.
While some argue that Mexico missed opportunities to secure more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the U.S., others point to the positive outcomes of trade negotiations during Trump’s term.
