Michigan’s Wayne County Could Play a Big Role in Presidential Election: Analysts

News Analysis

In a climate where there is seemingly little consensus on anything, several political experts and pollsters agree on one thing—that Detroit and Wayne County, Michigan, could potentially decide the 2024 presidential election.

The largest and most diverse in a critical swing state, the 1.7 million Wayne residents have been thrust into the national political spotlight. Though the county has an overwhelmingly Democratic base, two issues stand above all others heading into November: turnout and a seemingly frustrated Arab American population in the cities of Dearborn and Hamtramck.

“Other than Minnesota, Michigan is going to be a key swing state for Democrats in 2024. The question is, will the Palestinian protests make a difference?” Ed Sarpolus, the owner of research and polling firm Target-Insyght, told The Epoch Times.

“In 2000, Gore decided not to show up with the Arab community, and it hurt him,” he added.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat whose District 12 is located in Wayne County, led an “uncommitted” voting block for Arab Americans during the Michigan primary, frustrated by what they believe is a lack of action by President Joe Biden to quell the Israeli military response in the Gaza Strip. A Detroit native, Ms. Tlaib’s parents are Palestinian immigrants to the United States.

Nasser Beydoun, a Dearborn resident and former executive director of the Arab American Chamber of Commerce, is one of three Democrats running for retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s Senate seat. He told The Epoch Times that the “uncommitted” option in November is likely off the table.

“There are very few who believe the Arab American community will vote uncommitted for [President Biden] in November or for Donald Trump. The bigger concern in the Democratic base in Michigan [Wayne County] is whether people, frustrated by the president’s policies, will turn out to vote at all,” Mr. Beydoun said.

“There [are] three things he [President Biden] needs to do, and he’s already failed to do two. He could have voted for a Palestinian state with the U.N. He could have put conditions on all military aid to Israel, and he could have told [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu to stand down, or you’re going to lose our support,” he added.

No one is looking at Michigan as a state that will swing to presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump in November, but Democrats are focused on voter turnout to counter Republican dominance in other counties. Wayne County has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Herbert Hoover in the 1920s.

In 2016, President Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by the narrowest margin in state history by only 0.23 percent. In 2020, even though more than 68 percent of Wayne voters picked Mr. Biden for president, he narrowly won Michigan by a scant 2.8 percent.

With only 54 percent of Wayne residents white, the county now only stands as Michigan’s largest Democrat voting bloc and the most racially and ethnically diverse.

So when a rare African American Republican decides to throw their hat into county politics, they will have to find diverse policy positions not generally supported by their party to get attention.

Such is the case for long-shot Republican congressional candidate Martell Bivings, who is running unopposed in his party with the goal of taking on incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar, a Democrat from the 13th congressional district in Wayne County.

“I have to support [African American] reparations because many black men in the city, when they find out I’m a Republican, their first question is, ‘Where are you with reparations?’” Mr. Bivings told The Epoch Times. “I have to talk about this if I want African American males to vote for someone like me. I look at reparations as finishing President Lincoln’s work.”

Mr. Martell told The Epoch Times that he had just turned in his signatures for the congressional race this week and understands his priority is fundraising.

Mr. Martell has run as a Republican in Detroit before and says if it doesn’t work out this time, he’ll find a different location to throw his political hat.

“Yeah, this is my second go at it for Congress in this district. A lot of people tell me I should go somewhere else and run. If that’s the case, I’m going somewhere where the temperature is hot,” he said.

Despite Wayne County’s lack of political diversity, Mr. Sarpolus says Democrats should be highly concerned that minority dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s policies will keep them at home in November as a protest.

“Black voters stayed home in Michigan in 2016 because the Democrats wouldn’t talk to them. The Arab community still votes for Democrats. But now, the question is, will they stay home this year, too? If both groups stay home, that’s where the problem is,” Mr. Sarpolus said.

“Everyone knows the Democrats need Wayne County to offset the vote in the rest of the state,” he added.

Regarding the Arab American community in Wayne County, Mr. Beydoun says while they will probably participate in November, he’s not convinced they’ll vote for President Biden.

“They’re going to come out and vote. But it’s a matter of whether they’re going to vote for him [President Biden]. He hasn’t done anything to try and persuade these people.”