Sheehy’s path to victory is clouded by questions about his past, including his youth, business dealings, and a bullet in his arm. Despite being favored to challenge Sen. Jon Tester, his campaign faces challenges that have raised doubts about his candidacy. The upcoming primary will determine if Sheehy can overcome these obstacles and emerge as a strong contender in the November showdown. Tester, a third-generation rancher with a 61 percent favorable rating among state voters, has been elected three times as a Democrat in Montana. In 2018, he received significant support from voters who also reelected President Trump by a 99,000-vote margin, garnering nearly 344,000 votes in 2020.
Despite Montana’s history of electing more Democrats than Republicans to the U.S. Senate since 1900, the upcoming Tester-vs.-GOP challenger race is considered a toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and the American Enterprise Institute, with Cook Political Report leaning Democrat.
Tester has raised over $36.6 million for his campaign, with strong national donor support as Democrats aim to retain the seat. Meanwhile, his GOP challengers, Sheehy and Johnson, have raised significantly less funds, with Sheehy emerging as a viable contender in polls against Tester.
Recent surveys show Sheehy leading Tester by a small margin, indicating a competitive race ahead. Despite some setbacks, Sheehy is seen as the GOP’s best chance at unseating Tester, according to the Democrat Party, Tester’s campaign, and issue advocates.
The Montana Outdoor Values Action Fund has launched ads targeting Sheehy, claiming he would restrict access to public lands. The state party has also dedicated a website to Sheehy, signaling strong support for his candidacy.
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