According to Polish experts, Russia’s Africa Corps is expanding its presence in Africa and challenging Western interests and strategies on the continent. The successor to the Wagner Group, the Africa Corps has significantly strengthened its strategy, capacity, manpower, and military equipment, defying previous predictions by Western intelligence agencies.
In a report by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), it was revealed that Russia’s military influence in Africa has not diminished as anticipated, despite the suspected assassination of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023. Instead, Moscow has transformed a group of mercenaries into the Africa Corps, aiming to solidify its control in various regions and expand to others.
The Africa Corps, now under the supervision of three Russian state security services, is projected to have between 30,000 to 40,000 troops in Africa by the end of 2024. This ambitious goal indicates President Putin’s commitment to establishing a substantial military presence on the mineral-rich continent, despite ongoing commitments in Ukraine.
Currently, there are approximately 6,000 Russian troops in Africa, with half of them being former Wagner fighters with combat experience. The success of the Africa Corps in supporting Malian forces against separatists has demonstrated its capability to conduct large-scale military operations in Africa.
Russian analysts Filip Bryjka and Jedrzej Czerep suggest that the Kremlin aims to create an anti-Western bloc stretching from Guinea to Eritrea in Africa. This strategic move would provide Russia with access to key ports on the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea, as well as abundant natural resources like minerals, gold, diamonds, and oil.
The Kremlin has restructured Prigozhin’s empire, transferring control of Wagner’s business, propaganda, and mercenary components to Russian state security services. The Africa Corps continues to follow some of Prigozhin’s strategies, including providing military services to local regimes in exchange for exploiting natural resources.
Plans to establish a “center of influence” and a “logistical hub” in Libya, along with supporting rebels in control of eastern Libya, indicate the Africa Corps’ intentions to expand its reach and capabilities in Africa. The report also highlights Russia’s focus on establishing gold refineries, nuclear reactors, and solar farms in Burkina Faso and Mali as part of a long-term strategy.
The authors recommend that Western powers coordinate sanctions against actors linked to the Africa Corps and consider cyberattacks to disrupt infrastructure used for disinformation campaigns. These measures are seen as crucial steps to counter the growing influence of the Africa Corps on the African continent.
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