Both Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte have chosen not to participate in interviews, but Republican pollsters, strategists, and consultants in California believe that demographic shifts and increased efforts to engage voters of color have tipped the scales in their favor. They highlight Mr. Valadao’s narrow victory in 2020, as well as the successful campaigns of minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in the same year. Some argue that the presence of the presidential race may also boost Republican voter turnout.
“It’ll be a tight race, but Valadao is likely to come out on top,” said Cathy Abernathy, a Republican campaign consultant in Kern County. “And his success will probably be attributed to Trump being on the ballot.”
Registration data from the California secretary of state’s office indicates that the Republican voter base is expanding in the Central Valley districts represented by Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte. The increase in registered voters in both districts from September 2022 to February of this year surpasses the margin of victory in the 2022 races.
Rachel Hernandez, a member of the City Council in Riverbank who is running for mayor, remarked, “It’s interesting to see that the Latino community in the Central Valley is electing more conservative leaders, which goes against the commonly held belief that people of color lean towards progressive ideologies.”
Ms. Hernandez cautioned that this shift is not set in stone, but it serves as a wake-up call for Democrats to better understand the nuances of the Latino electorate. She emphasized the importance of tailoring messages to specific communities and collaborating with individuals who reflect the community they aim to reach.
“My volunteers, up until recently, have predominantly been young Latina women who are college-aged. They resonate with our campaign because they see themselves represented in our message,” Ms. Hernandez noted.
