The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to forecast an exceptionally active hurricane season for 2024.
It has been over three weeks since a named tropical storm or hurricane has formed in the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of September 5.
While there have been five low-pressure disturbances identified in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, the likelihood of this streak ending in the coming days is minimal.
Hurricane Ernesto was named on August 12, and the NHC issued its final advisory on August 20, as the storm moved over the north Atlantic more than 400 miles east-northeast of Newfoundland, Canada.
This marks a three-week gap between tropical cyclones reaching a level of strength and organized convection that warrants a name, and a two-week period since a tropical cyclone advisory was issued.
Each of the five low-pressure disturbances has a slight chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next week.
“Overall, the tropics (Atlantic basin) are starting to awaken from the slumber we have had for the last few weeks,” said Stan Goldenberg, a meteorologist for the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, in an email to The Epoch Times.
He mentioned several factors that could be contributing to the lack of development, such as the current state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a storm-producing phenomenon, and the persistent dryness in the air.
“We are still seeing a lot of dry air inhibiting activity, but that normally starts to clear out about this time so it is expected to change soon,” he added.
Possible Storm Developments
Only two disturbances seem to be impacting land immediately. Disturbance 1 is currently affecting the northwest Gulf Coast around Texas and Louisiana with a 10 percent chance of further development in the next seven days.
“Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so,” stated the NHC.
Meanwhile, Disturbance 4 was anticipated to reach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by August 6, described as disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
The most likely disturbance to develop was observed in the northwest Atlantic ocean between North Carolina and Bermuda. The NHC named this storm L99 and assigned it a 30 percent chance of developing within the next 48 hours, reporting better-organized showers and thunderstorms and near-gale force winds (39 to 54 mph).
“This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States,” the NHC mentioned. “Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday, further development is not expected.”
Dan Harnos, a meteorologist for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, stated in an email to The Epoch Times that the outlook suggests a greater than 40 percent chance of a hurricane forming between September 11 and 17 in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, “with lower probabilities of formation across the tropical Atlantic the following week.
“Also on the horizon is the potential forecast shift to La Niña conditions forecast during September-October-November, which have been shown to lengthen the duration of prior Atlantic hurricane seasons.”
Named Storms
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Atlantic, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, are named in alphabetical order throughout the season. As of September 5, only five named storms were recorded, and only three of those five reached hurricane status. This included Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record.
For comparison, in 2023, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported seven named storms within the two-week period between August 20 and September 5: Tropical Storm Gert, Tropical Storm Emily, Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Harold, Hurricane Idalia, Tropical Storm Jose, and Tropical Storm Katia.
Tropical Storms Gert, Emily, Jose, and Katia never made landfall.
“I do think it’s surprising for the tropics to be relatively quiet as we approach the historical peak of the season, which is just a few days away,” said Erica Grow Cei, a National Weather Service spokesperson and meteorologist, in an email to The Epoch Times. “But that’s just statistics! The atmospheric conditions mentioned by Dr. Harnos are preventing any of the waves originating off the coast of Africa from developing further. So meteorologically, it makes sense.”
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA has stated a 90 percent chance of higher than normal activity for 2024 and a 10 percent chance of near-normal activity.
NOAA’s prediction for the 2024 season includes 17 to 24 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with eight to 13 of them becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and four to seven becoming major hurricanes. A major hurricane is classified as a Category 3 or stronger storm with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
NOAA mentions that a typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Grow Cei advised those living in hurricane-prone areas that it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to cause a catastrophe, emphasizing that the 2024 season is not yet over.
“Enjoy this break from the typically active period for the tropics, but ensure your supplies are prepared in case a new storm starts brewing,” she recommended.
