About our polling averages
Our polling averages are compiled using data from The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight. Our methodology takes into account various factors such as the timeliness and sample size of each poll, whether the poll reflects likely voters, and any shifts in other polls since the data was collected.
We also assess the credibility of each pollster by considering if they have a history of accuracy in recent elections, if they are affiliated with a professional polling organization, and if they use probability-based sampling methods. These criteria influence the weight assigned to each poll in our averages. Pollsters meeting at least two of these criteria are categorized as “select pollsters” as long as they work with nonpartisan sponsors. Learn more about our methodology here.
The New York Times conducts its own national and state polls in collaboration with Siena College, and these polls are included in our averages. Stay updated on Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
