The upcoming Biden-Trump rematch is likely to be determined by voters who typically do not participate in most elections. These irregular voters tend to skip primaries and midterm elections but are more likely to turn out for the presidential election, the country’s highest-profile campaign.
Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explained this trend in a recent article. President Biden leads among Americans highly engaged in politics, while less engaged voters, dissatisfied with the country’s condition, prefer Trump by a margin that gives him a small overall lead.
Irregular voters have different concerns than politically engaged Americans. They are less likely to focus on divisive issues like abortion, immigration, and democracy, and more likely to prioritize pocketbook issues such as inflation and health care, expressing dissatisfaction with the economy.
A Carolina lament
The disconnect between Biden’s core campaign messages and the concerns of swing voters may explain why some of his messages have not resonated. While Biden emphasizes the country’s values and democracy, swing voters are more focused on the country’s direction, with many feeling disillusioned and favoring significant changes rather than stability.
The Wall Street Journal highlighted this issue in a recent article on the Democratic Party’s weakness with rural voters, citing a Democratic candidate in North Carolina who believes the national party’s message does not align with the concerns of voters in his district.
Several Democrats running in tough Senate races have shifted their focus to pocketbook issues and portraying themselves as populist fighters addressing living costs and special interests. These candidates, performing better in polls than Biden, are resonating with voters prioritizing economic issues.
Luigi Zingales, an economist, warns that focusing on Trump’s character rather than issues may not be an effective strategy. Zingales suggests that opponents should focus on policy issues that directly impact voters’ lives, similar to successful strategies used against populist leaders like Silvio Berlusconi in Italy.
Biden’s campaign imbalance, with an emphasis on democracy and American values over pocketbook issues, may be contributing to his struggles in the election. While this message has been effective in midterms, a presidential electorate with different priorities may require a shift towards addressing economic concerns.
Biden’s campaign is attempting to bridge the gap with a new ad that focuses on contrasting him as a president fighting for families with Trump as a convicted criminal. This attempt to shift the narrative reflects the challenge of appealing to a broader electorate with diverse priorities.
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