Following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, Democratic Party critics of Israel were warned by pro-Israel political groups that significant spending was on the way to either remove them from office or change their stance on the Middle East.
However, Representative Summer Lee of Pittsburgh, the first expected target of this spending, will face minimal opposition in the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday. Despite groups like Democratic Majority for Israel and United Democracy Project raising millions of dollars for this purpose, they have not yet followed through with their threats.
Individuals involved in the pro-Israel effort emphasize that the lack of action against Ms. Lee should not be misinterpreted. They were unable to find a suitable primary challenger for her, but upcoming primaries, particularly those of Representative Jamaal Bowman in New York in June and Representative Cori Bush in Missouri in August, may see a different outcome.
The landscape surrounding Israel has shifted significantly since the Gaza war began, especially in Democratic primaries. The prolonged conflict in Gaza has resulted in over 31,000 Palestinian casualties, altering the political dynamics. A growing number of Democratic leaders are now more likely to encounter pro-Palestinian demonstrators than pro-Israel demonstrators.
Recently, 37 House Democrats voted against providing military aid to Israel.
Funding from pro-Israel groups may not necessarily benefit Democratic primary challengers. It comes with a drawback as young, progressive voters tend to distance themselves from AIPAC and similar organizations. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll revealed a shift in public opinion, particularly among younger voters.
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, attributes this shift to the tone of news coverage. Faiz Shakir, an advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, highlights a broader policy debate regarding Israel’s safety and peace in the region.
The pro-Israel groups’ threats have only solidified the resolve of Israel’s critics, rather than altering their perspectives. Funding from conservative sources for groups like United Democracy Project has enabled the Democratic left to push back against the influence of “Republican money” in primary elections.
Despite efforts from pro-Israel groups, they have not been able to impact the core group of Democrats known as the Squad, who continue to advocate for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and stricter conditions on aid to Israel. Criticism of Israel has extended beyond the party’s liberal members, with mainstream Democrats also expressing concerns over Israeli actions.
Representative Mike Levin, an AIPAC-endorsed Democrat, suggested a need for a change in Israeli leadership to achieve peace, contrary to AIPAC’s traditional support for the Israeli government regardless of its policies. Justice Democrats anticipate significant spending against progressive voices like Mr. Bowman and Ms. Bush, but the “threat” from pro-Israel groups seems to be losing traction as the Squad continues to resonate with Democratic voters.
