Commentary
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping’s People’s Republic of China (PRC) in mid-May is noteworthy for the strong messages they conveyed to the world.
They signed a joint statement to deepen their ties, including trade and diplomatic support. Both leaders emphasized the shift to a multipolar world and a new path for major countries, distinct from the United States. Beijing also expressed support for Moscow in its conflict with Ukraine. Putin highlighted the “unprecedented level of strategic partnership” between Russia and the PRC, aiming to enhance coordination to counter the US’s actions.
However, beyond these declarations, the meeting exposed the power imbalance between Xi and Putin. Power is crucial in international politics, and Putin’s Russia is considerably less powerful than Xi’s PRC. Putin finds himself in a position of dependence on Xi, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Xi holds the upper hand in their relationship, and any support he offers comes at a high price for Putin.
Despite being in a subservient role, Putin holds strategic value for Xi for several reasons. Firstly, Putin serves as a distraction for the US and its allies, allowing Xi to act more aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents a risk of escalation that could divert resources from US national security efforts in the Indo-Pacific, giving Xi more freedom of action.
Secondly, a dependent Russia secures the PRC’s northern flank, a strategic advantage for Xi. Putin’s visit to Manchuria highlighted Russia’s diminished influence in the region and raised concerns about potential Chinese expansion into Siberia and the Russian Far East.
Thirdly, the PRC’s dominance in Central Asia further enhances Xi’s position, overshadowing Russia’s influence in the region. This shift benefits Xi but poses challenges for Putin.
Lastly, the meeting underscored the military dimension of the Russia-PRC relationship, complicating US war planning and introducing risks of coercion, including nuclear threats, against US interests.
The evolving dynamics between Russia and the PRC present significant challenges for US interests and international security. Putin’s decisions in the context of this relationship will determine Russia’s future trajectory and its ability to assert independence from Chinese influence.
In conclusion, while the Putin-Xi meeting showcased a strategic partnership, it also highlighted the complexities and power dynamics at play in international relations, with far-reaching implications for global stability and security.
Military Strategy in a Possible War Scenario
The military could potentially find itself fighting a conventional war with Russia in Eastern Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Indo-Pacific simultaneously. This raises the disturbing possibility of nuclear escalation, resulting in unprecedented costs for the United States.
Center of Gravity in the Russo-Ukrainian War
In the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the true center of gravity is not in Kyiv or Moscow but in Beijing. If the Biden administration were to focus on removing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from power, the root cause of the conflict would be addressed, eliminating the existential threat to the United States. However, instead of targeting the main enemy, the administration appears to be engaging with peripheral threats and risking dangerous escalation. This approach benefits Xi Jinping and the CCP, who are facing internal challenges and potential overthrow. This represents a missed opportunity for the United States that may not present itself again.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
