A recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College shows that President Biden is facing more doubts among Democrats than former President Donald J. Trump is facing among Republicans, even after Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges. The survey, conducted on the eve of the first presidential debate, indicates that while voters have negative views of both candidates, Trump has been more successful in solidifying support within his party. Only 72 percent of voters who voted for Biden in the last election approve of his performance as president, and voters overall trust Trump more on important issues.
The poll also reveals that despite Trump’s conviction, the outcome of his criminal case did not significantly impact voters’ decisions. Republicans still view Trump favorably, with about 90 percent support. Among the few voters who said the conviction would influence their vote, Republicans were more likely to support Trump by a 4-to-1 margin.
However, the survey shows vulnerabilities for Trump among independent voters, who could play a crucial role in the upcoming election. Twice as many independents said the conviction made them more likely to oppose Trump than support him, and a majority believe he received a fair trial. In head-to-head matchups, Trump leads Biden among likely voters, with a larger margin among registered voters. These results differ from the national polling average, raising questions about their accuracy.
The survey suggests that Trump’s base may be more motivated to participate in polls following his conviction, leading to a larger lead for him in this particular poll. Trump and Biden were close in previous surveys, but Trump now holds a lead, especially when third-party candidates are included. Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and both candidates are gearing up for an early debate.
Overall, a majority of voters approve of the verdict in Trump’s criminal case, but many believe he has committed serious crimes. Some supporters do not think he should go to prison as a result of his conviction. Trump’s conviction seems to have energized his base, with a significant increase in campaign donations following the verdict.
Despite the conviction, some Republicans, like Colin Lietz, believe it was politically motivated and have strengthened their support for Trump. The poll also notes that Republicans were more willing than usual to participate in the survey, a factor that may have influenced the results. In this survey, Republicans were nearly 40 percent more likely to participate than Democrats, a trend not seen in previous Times/Siena surveys this year.
The poll still maintains the correct ratio of Republicans, Democrats, and independents to represent the country as a whole. However, this discrepancy indicates a potential enthusiasm gap, where Trump supporters, regardless of their party, were more inclined to take the survey. A similar phenomenon was observed in 2020 when Biden supporters, who were more likely to stay home during the pandemic, eagerly responded to phone surveys, potentially leading to the overestimation of Mr. Biden’s support that year.
The latest survey reveals ongoing hesitancy among Mr. Biden’s supporters to fully support him in his 2024 rematch against Mr. Trump. A growing number of Mr. Biden’s own supporters express doubts about his candidacy, with 48 percent now indicating they do not want him as the Democratic nominee.
Concerns about age persist for Mr. Biden, despite both candidates being in their late 70s. A significant portion of voters view Mr. Biden as too old to be effective, including a majority of his own supporters. This sentiment has remained consistent since April.
Economic issues and inflation continue to be top priorities for voters, with many believing Mr. Trump would better handle these concerns. However, a rising number of voters, including some Democrats, prioritize immigration as the most crucial issue, with the majority believing Mr. Trump is better equipped to address it.
The survey also highlights voter preferences on specific issues, with Mr. Biden favored on abortion-related concerns and Mr. Trump trusted on foreign policy matters. When asked about which candidate would perform better on their most important issue, 51 percent chose Mr. Trump over 37 percent for Mr. Biden.
Despite concerns about age and handling of key issues, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are viewed similarly in terms of personality and temperament to be an effective president. Mr. Biden continues to perform well among consistent voters, but Mr. Trump is favored among registered voters who did not vote in the previous election.
Overall, the survey provides insights into voter sentiments and preferences leading up to the 2024 election. For more detailed results and methodology, refer to the provided links for the full report. Please provide an alternative version.
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