Following Donald J. Trump’s conviction, a key question arises: Has the verdict influenced anyone’s opinion?
Early indications suggest that it has had some impact.
In interviews with almost 2,000 voters who had previously participated in New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden seems to have gained slightly following Mr. Trump’s conviction for falsifying business records.
Initially, this group favored Mr. Trump by three points, but after the conviction, their support shifted to just one point in his favor.
While it’s uncertain if these views mirror the broader electorate, the data provides clear evidence that the verdict prompted some voters to reassess their backing for Mr. Trump.
Despite retaining 93 percent of his previous supporters, Mr. Trump has experienced a shift in support. In a close election, losing even 7 percent of backers could be crucial. Recent polls show Mr. Biden leading or closely competing with Mr. Trump in states and districts that hold the key to securing the presidency.
Notably, a segment of Mr. Trump’s former supporters, 3 percent, now intend to vote for Mr. Biden, while another 4 percent remain undecided. The movement is significant, particularly among young, nonwhite, and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters.
Furthermore, voters who previously supported both candidates (double haters) were more likely to shift away from Mr. Trump, with over one-fifth of them switching their allegiance. This group of defectors was divided between backing Mr. Biden and expressing indecision.
Politically disengaged voters, a demographic that showed growth for Mr. Trump in recent polls, are particularly prone to shifting their support from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden.
With five months until the election, there is still time for Mr. Trump to reclaim lost ground. Public opinion can be volatile following a major news event, and the study suggests that some voters remain undecided or have yet to form a definitive opinion on the verdict.
While a plurality of respondents approved of the verdict, a substantial portion indicated they had insufficient information to make a judgment. Some admitted to paying little or no attention to Mr. Trump’s legal issues.
The study reveals an electorate in flux, with many disengaged voters who could sway the outcome in the coming months. Notably, 8 percent of respondents altered their stance in the presidential race compared to just eight weeks ago, indicating a higher level of volatility than expected in the current political landscape.
Although Mr. Biden retained the majority of his supporters, a small percentage shifted their allegiance to Mr. Trump, while others became undecided.
While this recontacting study offers valuable insights into changing voter sentiments, it may not fully represent the entire electorate. Factors like nonresponse bias and the overrepresentation of politically engaged voters could impact the study’s findings.
Despite some supporters becoming more enthusiastic, the overall shift towards Mr. Biden aligns with recent surveys. Following the verdict, a portion of Republicans expressed reduced likelihood of supporting Mr. Trump in the upcoming election.
Another recontacting study by Echelon Insights indicated Mr. Biden gaining ground compared to previous surveys. Additionally, polls conducted in battleground states suggested that a percentage of Mr. Trump’s supporters would switch to Mr. Biden if he were convicted and sentenced to jail in a criminal trial.
For a detailed breakdown of the study’s methodology and results, please visit here.
