The presidential politics of this summer have provided ample fodder for conspiracy theories: the Democratic candidate swap, the alleged assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the rise and fall of Project 2025, and the last-minute vice presidential selections. It’s easy to see these events as part of a nefarious scheme orchestrated by a group of powerful individuals playing a complex game. This is where Hanlon’s razor comes in.
For those unfamiliar, Hanlon’s razor cautions against attributing to malice what can be explained by simple stupidity. The origins of this saying are murky, with references dating back to a 1980 book of clever quotes. It gained popularity on early Usenet boards as a way to dismiss various conspiracy theories.
Notable figures like Robert Heinlein have endorsed the concept, using it to explain complex situations that may seem sinister but are ultimately the result of ignorance. In the context of the current U.S. election cycle, it’s tempting to see everything as part of a grand plan, but perhaps it’s just a case of people making foolish decisions.
While there may have been a deliberate effort to conceal Biden’s cognitive decline, Hanlon suggests that most individuals close to him may have been unaware of the extent of the issue until it was too late. Advisors likely underestimated their ability to manage the situation, leading to a chaotic scramble for a replacement. Similarly, even acts like presidential assassinations may have roots in ignorance rather than pure malice.
Projects like Project 2025 are not uncommon in Washington, D.C., where think tanks and publications strategize for future political influence. While the goals of some may be questionable, the underlying premise is not new. The dysfunction within certain political factions serves as a safeguard against any truly dangerous conspiracies taking hold.
One of the challenges we face today is that many individuals who make questionable decisions view themselves as conspiracy theorists. It’s more appealing to think of oneself as part of a malicious plot rather than admitting to incompetence. This shift in attitudes has blurred the lines between the two major political parties, leading to policies and actions that are both misguided and harmful.
Events like the January 6 Capitol riot test our willingness to apply Hanlon’s razor. While there were undoubtedly individuals with malicious intent involved, the overall chaos and stupidity of the situation overshadowed any organized villainy. As we navigate the final weeks of the election season, it’s essential to remember the principle of Hanlon’s razor and approach our opponents with a sense of understanding and charity.
This article originally appeared in print under the headline “Hanlon’s Razor Rusts.”
